产出不确定下易逝品限量预售鲁棒策略分析  

Robust Strategy Analysis of Capacity Rationing in Advance Selling About Perishable Products Under Yield Uncertainty

作　　者：孙彩虹[1] 李振 于辉[4] SUN Caihong;LI Zhen;YU Hui(School of Accountancy,Chongqing Technology and Business University,Chongqing 400067;Hubei Earthquake Agency,Wuhan 430071;School of Business Administration,Chongqing Technology and Business University,Chongqing 400067;School of Economies and Business Administration,Chongqing University,Chongqing 400044)

机构地区：[1]重庆工商大学会计学院,重庆400067 [2]湖北省地震局,重庆430071 [3]重庆工商大学工商管理学院,重庆400067 [4]重庆大学经济与工商管理学院,重庆400044

出　　处：《系统科学与数学》2023年第4期898-913,共16页Journal of Systems Science and Mathematical Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(72172019,71872021);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(21YJA630080);重庆市教委自然科学重点项目(KJZD-K202200802);重庆市研究生科研创新项目(CYS20310)资助课题。

摘　　要：限量预售是融合供需对接而成的复合型销售模式,正受到企业上市易逝品的青睐.在产出不确定环境下,基于易逝品随机产出因子部分信息,构建生产商在正常销售前引入限量预售的两阶段鲁棒报童模型,在鲁棒决策下探讨了预售策略.研究表明:限量预售既能纾解产出不确定风险导致的供需矛盾,又能减小该风险对期望利润带来的冲击;限量预售模式选择的阈值条件由易逝品随机产出因子变异系数,两阶段销售价格及需求影响因子共同权衡确定.同时,发现鲁棒最优预售量及其影响因素并提供了策略建议.Capacity rationing in advance selling,a kind of complex selling model based on joint connection between supply and demand,is favored by enterprises to launch perishable products.To study the advance-selling strategy under the circumstance of yield uncertainty,a two-period robust newsvendor model is constructed,in which the manufacturer introduces capacity rationing in advance selling into regular selling.With the support of the robust decision,the model is studied on the basis of partial information of perishable products'stochastic proportional yield.It is found that capacity rationing in advance selling can not only relieve the contradiction between supply and demand,caused by the yield-uncertainty risk,but also reduce the impact of this risk on expected profits.The threshold condition of whether to select capacity rationing in advance selling is determined by the coefficient of variation of stochastic proportional yield,two-period sales price and demand impact factor about perishable products.At the same time,the robust optimal advance-selling quantity and its influence factors are shown and the relevant strategy suggestions are offered.

关 键 词：限量预售 易逝品 产出不确定 鲁棒分析 

分 类 号：F274[经济管理—企业管理]