水动力实时校正模型在温黄平原洪水预报中的应用  

Application of Real-Time Correction Hydrodynamic Model in Flood Forecast of Wenhuang Plain

作　　者：陈雰[1] 王春凌 黄成 CHEN Fen;WANG Chun-ling;HUANG Cheng(College of Architecture and Engineering,Taizhou University,Taizhou 318000,Zhejiang,China;Zhejiang Haoxin Engineering Consulting Co.Ltd.,Taizhou 318000,Zhejiang,China)

机构地区：[1]台州学院建筑工程学院,浙江台州318000 [2]浙江昊信工程咨询有限公司,浙江台州318000

出　　处：《水利科技与经济》2023年第6期87-91,共5页Water Conservancy Science and Technology and Economy

基　　金：浙江省高校实验室工作研究项目(编号:YB202120)。

摘　　要：为提高平原区河网的实时洪水预报精度,以温黄平原为例,建立平原地区河网水文水动力模型,针对以水位、流量为向量的两个状态空间分别应用卡尔曼模型进行交替滤波,实现状态量的校正和模型参数的自动调整;同时,应用该模型对不同暴雨频率下温黄平原的水动力过程进行模拟。结果显示,修正模型计算结果与实测资料吻合,局部测站的水文校正能够提高整个河网实时预报的精度;淹没范围和洪水到达时间除了与暴雨强度相关外,还与地形的容积阈值密切相关。In order to improve the accuracy of real-time flood forecast of river network in plain area,this paper takes Wenhuang plain as an example,establishes the hydrological and hydrodynamic model of river network in plain area,and applies Kalman model to alternately filter the two state spaces with water level and flow as vectors,so as to realize the correction of state variables and the automatic adjustment of model parameters.The model is applied to simulate the hydrodynamic process of Wenhuang plain under different rainstorm frequencies.The results show that the calculation results of the modified model are consistent with the measured data,and the hydrological correction of local stations can improve the accuracy of real-time prediction of the whole river network;the inundation range and flood arrival time are closely related to the volume threshold of terrain besides the rainstorm intensity.

关 键 词：实时洪水预报 卡尔曼滤波 水动力模型 河网 温黄平原 

分 类 号：TV877[水利工程—水利水电工程]