碳中和目标的公平性评价——基于碳配额分配模型  

Fairness evaluations of carbon neutrality targets in major countries based on the burden sharing model

作　　者：杨雷 潘勋章 陈文颖[1,2] YANG Lei;PAN Xunzhang;CHEN Wenying(Research Center for Contemporary Management,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;Institute of Energy,Environment and Economy,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;School of Economics and Management,China University of Petroleum,Beijing 102249,China)

机构地区：[1]清华大学现代管理研究中心,北京100084 [2]清华大学能源环境经济研究所,北京100084 [3]中国石油大学(北京)经济管理学院,北京102249

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2023年第6期1-10,共10页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“2060年碳中和愿景下的电力转型路径与政策研究”(批准号:22JJD480001);国家自然科学基金重大项目“国际气候治理与合作机制”(批准号:71690243);国家自然科学基金国际合作项目“可持续能源环境转型之路:全球和中爱能源-环境-气候多模型创新集成模拟”(批准号:51861135102);科学技术部《第四次气候变化国家评估报告》(减缓气候变化卷)编制工作专项。

摘　　要：承担减排责任是参与气候变化全球治理的重要组成。碳中和目标已成为气候变化领域的热点,目前明确提出碳中和目标的国家已覆盖全球超75%的温室气体排放。合理地评价和比较各国/地区碳中和目标将成为全球盘点的重要内容,同时对各国提振减排目标具有参考意义。该研究首先利用配额分配模型,研究了全球2℃和1.5℃目标下主要国家和地区需实现的碳中和年份,评价了各国目标年份与全球温升目标的关系;在此基础上,模拟主要国家和地区实现碳中和的可仿效路径,以年均减排量、人均排放及人均累计排放等指标评估了各国和地区碳中和目标力度。研究得出:多数发达国家和地区当前碳中和目标无法满足全球实现1.5℃温升目标的要求;美国和欧盟延续现有NDC目标下的年均减排量,即可实现2050年碳中和目标。中国实现2060年碳中和目标,2030—2050年年均减排率为6.7%,年均减排量为1.5℃目标路径下全球的51%,将面临较大压力;中国未来将成为全球累计排放的主力,其未来选择的减排路径对全球累计排放及温升目标均将产生重要影响。基于上述研究结论,该研究提出发达国家与发展中国家应积极探索双边或多边协作减排模式,实现技术和资金等方面的深度合作;中国面对实现碳中和的压力,需尽快明确碳中和减排总路径以及分部门、分行业、分省份、分阶段的减排路径等建议。Assuming responsibility for emission reduction is an important part of participating in the global governance of climate change.Countries with a carbon neutrality target now cover about 75%of global greenhouse gas emissions.Carrying out fairness evaluations of their carbon neutrality targets provide a strong basis for the global carbon inventory.In this paper,the target years of carbon neutrality for major countries and regions under the global target of 2℃and 1.5℃are studied using the burden sharing model.On this basis,this paper simulates the possible pathways of carbon neutrality and evaluates the ambition of emission reduction targets in terms of annual emission reduction,per capita emission,and cumulative per capita emission.The results show that,from the perspective of equity,most of the developing countries cannot meet the global goal of 1.5℃.The United States and the European Union nations could achieve carbon neutrality by 2050 by continuing their annual emission reductions under their existing NDC targets.However,to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060,China􀆳s annual emission reduction rate from 2030 to 2050 will be 6.7%,and the annual amount of emission reduction accounts for 51%of the global amount under the 1.5℃target.Meanwhile,China would become the main force behind global cumulative emissions in the following decades.Thus,the emission reduction pathways China chooses will have an important impact on global climate mitigation progress.Based on the above research conclusions,this paper proposes that developed countries and developing countries should explore bilateral or multilateral cooperation in technology and finance in the field of climate change.Under the great pressure to achieve carbon neutrality,China needs to carry out research on the overall emission reduction pathways as soon as possible and clarify the paths at the scale of sectors,industries,provinces,and time stages.

关 键 词：碳中和 公平性评价 仿效路径 配额分配 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]