Changes in the seasonal amplitude of northern ecosystem productivity under future global warming  

作　　者：Jiawen Zhu Xiaofei Gao Xiaodong Zeng 

机构地区：[1]International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing,China [2]Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD),Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology,Nanjing,China [3]University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing,China

出　　处：《Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters》2023年第3期1-6,共6页大气和海洋科学快报（英文版）

基　　金：supported by the Major Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant number 41991282];the Youth Innovation Promotion Association of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[grant number 2022076];the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences [grant number XDA19030403]

摘　　要：观测显示过去几十年北半球大气二氧化碳季节幅度大幅增加,这主要是由北半球陆地净生态系统生产力季节幅度的增加所致。但是,因为气候变化和植被动态的不确定性,未来陆地净生态系统生产力季节幅度的变化还很不清楚.本工作利用全球植被动力学模式研究了全球变暖背景下北纬45°以北陆地净生态系统生产力季节幅度的变化.作者做了两大类试验:当代试验(1981-2000)和CMIP5RCP8.5变暖情景驱动的未来试验(2081-2100).结果显示,在RCP8.5变暖情景下北半球中高纬陆地净生态系统生产力季节幅度整体增加,这是因为陆地净生态系统生产力的月最大值增加且月最小值减小.最大(最小)陆地净生态系统生产力的增加(减小)是由于总初级生产力的增加强(弱)于生态系统总呼吸,总初级生产力和生态系统总呼吸的变化都主要受地表气温和植被动态的驱动.本工作强调了植被动态对北半球中高纬陆地生态系统碳循环的关键调制作用,也强调了在地球系统模式中包含全球植被动力学模式的重要性。Observations have shown a largely enhanced seasonal amplitude of northern atmospheric cO,in the past several decades,and this enhancement is attributable to the increased seasonal amplitude of northern net ecosystem productivity(NEP amplitude).In the future,however,the changes in NEP amplitude are not clear,because of the uncertainties in climate change and vegetation dynamics.This study investigated the changes in NEP amplitude north of 45'N under future global warming by using a dynamic global vegetation model(DGVM).The authors conducted two sets of simulations:a present-day simulation(1981-2000)and future simulations(2081-2100)forced by RCP8.5 outputs from CMIP5.The results showed an overall enhanced northern NEP amplitude under the RCP8.5 scenario because of the increased maximum NEP and the decreased minimum NEP.The increases(decreases)in the maximum(minimum)NEP resulted from stronger(weaker)positive changes in gross primary production(GPP)than ecosystem respiration(ER).Changes in GPP and ER are both dominantly driven by surface air temperature and vegetation dynamics.This work highlights the key role of vegetation dynamics in regulating the northern terrestrial carbon cycle and the importance of including a DGVM in Earth system models.

关 键 词：陆地生态系统碳循环 全球变暖 植被动态 碳循环的季节变化 

分 类 号：X171.1[环境科学与工程—环境科学] P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]