基于市场细分理论的城市物流需求预测模型与应用——以广州市为例  

Urban Logistics Demand Forecasting Model Based on Market Segmentation Theory and its Application:a Case Study of Guangzhou

作　　者：易斌 宋程 幸晓辉 王佩 YI Bin;SONG Cheng;XING Xiaohui;WANG Pei(Guangzhou Transport Planning&Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Guangzhou 510030,China)

机构地区：[1]广州市交通规划研究院有限公司,广东广州510030

出　　处：《物流技术》2023年第5期99-104,131,共7页Logistics Technology

摘　　要：为了确定城市各类物流基础设施的合理规模、提高物流系统规划的科学性、促进城市物流的精准化管理,提出了城市物流需求规模的预测方法。基于市场细分理论,将城市物流需求精细划分为本地商贸物流需求(城市配送)、本地生产物流需求(生产物流)、对外交易型中转物流需求(区域分拨)和通过型中转物流需求(中转物流)4类,并建立各类细分物流需求与对应社会经济指标的关系模型,预测未来城市物流需求总量。以广州市为例进行应用研究,结果表明,基于市场细分理论的城市物流需求预测方法具有可实施性,并解决了传统交通需求模型对物流需求预测实用性不足的问题。In this paper,in order to determine the reasonable scale of various categories of urban logistics infrastructure,provide a rational basis for logistics system planning,and promote the precision management of urban logistics activities,we proposed a method for forecasting the scale of urban logistics demand.Based on the theory of market segmentation,we divided urban logistics demand into local business logistics demand(urban distribution),local productive logistics demand(production logistics),foreign transaction-oriented transit logistics demand(regional distribution),and passthrough transit logistics demand(transit logistics),and established the model to describe the relationship between the subdivided logistics demands and the corresponding social and economic indicators,which could be used to predict the total future logistics demand of a city.Taking Guangzhou as an empirical example,we showed that the urban logistics demand forecasting method based on market segmentation is enforceable and superior to traditional traffic demand models in terms of practicability.

关 键 词：市场细分 城市物流 物流需求 需求规模 预测模型 广州 

分 类 号：F259.2[经济管理—国民经济]