气候移民预测建模与决策  

Research on the Modeling and Decision of Climate Migration Prediction

作　　者：雷原 李帅[2] 满泉言 黄敢基[4] LEI Yuan;LI Shuai;MAN Quanyan

机构地区：[1]广西大学电气工程学院,南宁530004 [2]广西大学农学院,南宁530004 [3]广西大学资源环境与材料学院,南宁530004 [4]广西大学数学与信息科学学院,南宁530004

出　　处：《科技创新与应用》2023年第18期10-14,共5页Technology Innovation and Application

基　　金：广西自然科学基金资助项目(2018GXNSFDA281055);广西应用数学中心能力提升计划(桂科AD22080047);高等学校大学数学教学研究与发展中心项目(CMC202202预04)。

摘　　要：针对全球变暖导致海平面上涨而引起的气候移民预测和保护问题,利用最小二乘拟合结合灰色预测理论得到海平面高度的预测与人口时间响应方程,为预测某个地区或国家的气候移民需要的迁移时间及产生的规模提供方法与理论依据。同时,利用种群竞争模型分析本地文化与气候移民文化的关系,得到建立气候移民聚集区对保护文化有积极作用的结论。最后,以H地区为例,利用层次分析法制订综合性考虑的移民安置方案。Aiming at the prediction and protection of climate migration caused by sea level rise caused by global warming,the prediction of sea level height and population time response equation are obtained by using least square fitting and grey prediction theory,which provides a method and theoretical basis for predicting the migration time and scale of climate migration in a region or country.At the same time,the population competition model is used to analyze the relationship between local culture and climate immigration culture,and it is concluded that the establishment of climate migration gathering areas plays a positive role in protecting culture.Finally,taking H area as an example,a comprehensive resettlement plan is formulated by using analytic hierarchy process(AHP).

关 键 词：气候移民 灰色预测 最小二乘拟合 种群竞争 层次分析法 

分 类 号：O29[理学—应用数学]