不确定性的双元视角-基于盲盒销售的探讨  

A Dual Perspective on Uncertainty——An Exploration Based on Blind Box

作　　者：徐颖[1] 郭雯君 XU Ying;GUO Wenjun(School of Business and Management,Jilin University,Changchun 130012,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林大学商学与管理学院,长春130012

出　　处：《管理科学》2023年第1期119-131,共13页Journal of Management Science

摘　　要：随着盲盒销售模式的兴起,它的随机特性使其精准切入了消费者市场。消费者在打开盲盒前不能确定购买的具体商品,因此盲盒销售充满了不确定性。已有研究表明,消费者对不确定性的看法是负面的,不确定性会引发消费者的负面态度,抑制其行为。然而盲盒的盛行让人不得不重新审视不确定性对消费者产品评价和再购买意愿的影响。基于享乐-实用二元购物价值理论,探究在购买产品时不确定性对消费者享乐价值和实用价值的双向作用,提出消费者在购买不同类型产品时这种双向价值作用对产品评价和再购买意愿的影响,并结合期望确认理论进一步探究不确定性引发的消费者惊讶对这种影响的中介作用及其边界条件。采用3个递推式实验对研究假设进行检验,并在实验中采用不同的产品操控方式和实验情景,以增加实验效度。研究结果表明,不确定性在与产品类型的交互作用下影响消费者的产品评价和再购买意愿,且这种影响在惊讶的中介下产生作用,同时受到消费者偏好确认方向的制约。当购买产品为享乐品时,不确定性引发的惊讶使消费者产生刺激的购物体验,进而产生高的产品评价和再购买意愿;当购买产品为实用品时,不确定性引发的惊讶增加了消费者的认知负担,进而产生低的产品评价和再购买意愿;与正向的偏好确认结果相比,负向的偏好确认降低惊讶对产品评价和再购买意愿的积极作用。以二元购物价值理论为基础,突破了从单一角度看待不确定性的研究局限,解决了已有研究存在的分歧,同时引入不确定性也丰富了原有的购物价值理论,揭示了“一入盲盒深似海”的内在机理。通过阐述惊讶本质和属性及其在认知和情感中的作用,弥补了目前惊讶研究的不足,丰富了情绪理论体系。研究结果对企业提升消费者购物体验、挖掘营销要素具有重要�With the ubiquitous trend of blind box sales model,its random characteristics enable it to accurately enter the mar-ket.Consumers cannot know ahead what the specific product is until they open the box,so the sales mode is full of uncertainty.Prior researches have shown that individual views uncertainty negatively,and that uncertainty will lead to negative attitudes and inhibit consumer behaviors.However,the prevalence of“blind boxes”urges us to re-examine the impact of uncertainty on consumers'product evaluation and repurchase intention.Based on the theory of hedonic-utilitarian shopping value,this research studies the dual effect of uncertainty on con-sumers'hedonic and utilitarian shopping value,which results in different influences on consumer product evaluation and repur-chase intention when consumers purchase different types of products.Furthermore,according to expectation disconfirmation theory,the relationship between uncertainty and product evaluation as well as repurchase intention is mediated by the con-sumer surprise and moderated by valance of the expectation disconfirmation.Three recursive experiments were conducted in turn to prove the hypothesis.Different manipulations and scenarios were used to increase the validity of the experiment.The results show that uncertainty interacted with product type affects consumer product evaluation and repurchase inten-tion,and the effect is mediated by surprise,which is also constrained by the direction of consumer preference confirmation.Specifically,when a product is hedonic,the surprise caused by uncertainty makes the purchase an exciting shopping experience,and then leads to high product evaluation and repurchase intention.When product is utilitarian,the surprise increases consumer's cognitive burden,which leads to low product evaluation and repurchase intention.In addition,compared with positive preference confirmation results,negative confirmation will reduce the positive effect of surprise on product evaluation and repurchase intention.Based on the hedo

关 键 词：不确定性 惊讶 购物价值 情绪 享乐品 实用品 

分 类 号：F713.5[经济管理—市场营销]