咸海萎缩速率变化及驱动因素分析  

Analysis of Shrinking Rate Variation and Its Driving Factors of the Aral Sea

作　　者：王浩轩 黄峰[1,2] 郭利丹[2,3] 钟瑞森[4] WANG Haoxuan;HUANG Feng;GUO Lidan;ZHONG Ruisen(College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Business School of Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,China;International River Research Centre,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,China;Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Urumqi 830011,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [2]河海大学国际河流研究中心,江苏南京211100 [3]河海大学商学院,江苏南京211100 [4]中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐830011

出　　处：《水文》2023年第3期107-111,共5页Journal of China Hydrology

基　　金：新疆水专项(2020.E-002);国家自然科学基金(42071049)。

摘　　要：咸海的萎缩造成了举世瞩目的生态灾难。为探究咸海萎缩及其速率变化的可能原因,采用Mann-Kendall检验法、两相线性回归检验法分析了咸海水位与水面面积、咸海流域降水与气温、耕地与建设用地面积的趋势及突变变化特征,通过构建多元线性回归模型,剖析了不同时期咸海萎缩的驱动因素。结果表明:咸海的水位显著降低了19.08m,水面面积显著缩小了4.90×10^(4)km^(2);咸海水位与水面面积的变化呈现出明显的阶段性特征,均于1960年、2008年发生显著突变,在突变时间前后,咸海萎缩速率发生了显著变化;在咸海萎缩的各个阶段,人类活动均比气候变化对咸海萎缩的影响相对更为显著。The shrinking of the Aral Sea has caused an ecological disaster that has attracted worldwide attention.In order to explore the possible reasons for the shrinkage of the Aral Sea and its rate change,the Mann-Kendall test and the two-phase linear regression test were used to analyze the change trend and mutation points of the surface area and average water level of the Aral Sea,the precipitation and temperature in the Aral Sea basin,and the area of cropland and built-up land.The characteristics of mutational changes were analyzed by constructing a multiple linear regression model to analyze the driving factors of the shrinkage of the Aral Sea in different periods.The results showed that the water level of the Aral Sea was significantly reduced by 19.08 m.The water surface area was significantly reduced by 4.90×10^(4) km^(2).The changes of the water level and the water surface area showed obvious phase characteristics,and both of them had significant mutational changes in 1960 and 2008.The shrinkage rate of the Aral Sea changed significantly before and after the mutation time.In all stages of the shrinkage of the Aral Sea,the impact of human activities was greater than the impact of climate change on the Aral Sea.

关 键 词：咸海 萎缩速率 趋势分析 突变检测 人类活动 气候变化 

分 类 号：P337[天文地球—水文科学] TV15[水利工程—水文学及水资源]