从绝对贫困消除转向相对贫困治理:城镇化的跨层中介调节模型分析  

From Absolute Poverty Elimination to Relative Poverty Governance:An Analysis of Hierarchical Mediated Moderating Model of Urbanization

作　　者：高齐圣[1] 王秋苏 GAO Qi-sheng;WANG Qiu-su(Department of Economics,Qingdao University,Qingdao 266061,China)

机构地区：[1]青岛大学经济学院,山东青岛266061

出　　处：《数理统计与管理》2023年第3期495-512,共18页Journal of Applied Statistics and Management

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学规划研究项目(20YJA630018);山东省社会科学规划研究项目(17CGLJ05)。

摘　　要：中国在2020年基本实现消除绝对贫困的阶段性目标后,反贫困战略将主要围绕减少长期贫困和缓解相对贫困展开。本文将研究重点聚焦于相对贫困的治理上,运用分层线性模型(HLM)探究相对贫困的影响因素,并选取城镇化水平作为衡量地区差异的层-2解释变量,通过理论与实证均验证了其在减贫过程中发挥着跨层中介调节作用。研究结果表明:财政支农支出政策作为层-1解释变量对缩小相对贫困有直接的显著效应,而城镇化作为层-2中介调节变量带来的负面效应抑制了财政支农支出减贫的效果。进一步分析表明:在产业结构优化升级和经济发展过程中,城镇化带来的就业机会增加等正向外部性,会更多的惠及贫困人口,极大地提高了贫困人口的收入水平,缩小收入差距。从财政支农支出、产业结构升级以及经济发展的总体情况看,减贫效果呈现从东向西递减趋势。因此,随着城镇化的进程加快,不仅要抓住二三产业飞速发展的机遇,带动更多的相对贫困人口就业,更要警惕其带来的扩大贫富差距的可能,这就要求政府在扶贫政策的制定和实施上要更加精准化和效率化。After China has basically achieved the phased goal of eliminating absolute poverty in 2020,the anti-poverty strategy will mainly focus on reducing long-term poverty and alleviating relative poverty.This paper focuses on the governance of relative poverty,using Hierarchical Linear Model(HLM)to explore the influencing factors of relative poverty.At the same time,the level of urbanization is taken as a level-2 explanatory variable to measure regional differences.Both theoretical and empirical results show that urbanization plays an intermediary role in the process of poverty reduction.The results show that:the policy of fiscal support for agriculture has a direct and significant effect on reducing relative poverty,but the negative effect brought by urbanization inhibits the achievement of poverty reduction.In the process of optimization and upgrading of industrial structure and economic development,the positive externalities such as the increase of employment opportunities brought about by urbanization benefit the poor more,greatly improve the income level of the poor and narrow the income gap.From the perspective of the overall poverty reduction effect of fiscal expenditure on agriculture,industrial structure upgrading and economic development,the poverty reduction effect shows a decreasing trend from east to west,which is closely related to the local economic development level and urbanization level.Therefore,with the acceleration of urbanization process,government should seize the opportunity of rapid development of the secondary and tertiary industries to promote more employment of the relatively poor population.And they should be alert to the possibility of widening the gap between the rich and the poor,which requires the government to be more precise and eficient in the formulation and implementation of Poverty Alleviation Policies.

关 键 词：相对贫困 HLM 城镇化 中介调节 地区差异 

分 类 号：O212[理学—概率论与数理统计]