牧户生计资本如何影响畜牧业冻害生计风险——基于风险感知的中介效应分析  

How does herdsmen's livelihood capital affect the freezing-damaged livelihood risk in animal husbandry?A mediation effect analysis based on risk perception

作　　者：蒋振 高雅罕 靳乐山[1,2] JIANG Zhen;GAO Yahan;JIN Leshan(College of Humanities and Development Studies,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100193,China;China Eco-compensation Policy Research Center,Beijing 100193,China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学人文与发展学院,北京100193 [2]中国生态补偿政策研究中心,北京100193

出　　处：《中国农业大学学报》2023年第6期230-243,共14页Journal of China Agricultural University

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目(18ZDA048);亚洲开发银行重点课题(KSTA-9653-PRC)。

摘　　要：为探究牧户生计资本对其畜牧业冻害生计风险的响应及作用机制,以牧户为基准视角,使用2020年青藏高原东缘若尔盖草原644份牧户调研数据,并通过构建“生计资本—风险感知—生计风险”理论分析框架,运用Tobit模型、工具变量、中介效应等分析方法,从风险感知的中介视角实证检验牧户生计资本对畜牧业冻害生计风险的影响。结果表明:1)牧户生计资本能够有效缓解畜牧业冻害生计风险冲击,具体表现为牧户物质资本和金融资本对畜牧业冻害生计风险具有显著负向影响。2)牧户风险感知对降低畜牧业冻害生计风险具有显著积极作用。3)牧户风险感知在生计资本对畜牧业冻害生计风险的影响中存在显著的中介效应,中介效应占总效应的比重为13.82%。鉴于此,要减少牧户的畜牧业冻害生计风险,应从完善牧户生计资本结构、提高牧户风险感知水平两方面入手,增强牧户生计韧性,推动草原畜牧业高质量发展。In order to explore the impact of herdsmen's livelihood capital and risk perception on the freezing-damaged livelihood risk in animal husbandry and its mechanism,based on the survey data of 644 herdsmen on 2020 in Ruoergai grassland located on the eastern edge of the Qinghai-Tibet plateau,this study constructs a theoretical analysis framework of“livelihood capital-risk perception-livelihood risk”,and uses the Tobit model,instrumental variables,mediation effects and other analysis methods to empirically test the effect of herdsmen's livelihood capital on the freezing-damaged livelihood risk from the perspective of risk perception's mediation effect.The results show that:1)The livelihood capital significantly alleviates the impact of freezing-damaged livelihood risk in animal husbandry,specifically,physical capital and financial capital have a significant negative impact on it.2)The risk perception of household has a significant positive effect on reducing the freezing-damaged livelihood risk in animal husbandry.3)The risk perception of household has a significant mediation effect on livelihood capital's impact to freezing-damaged livelihood risk in animal husbandry,the mediating effect accounts for 13.82%of the total effect.In conclusion,in order to reduce the freezing-damaged livelihood risk in animal husbandry,it is necessary to improve herdsmen's livelihood capital and risk perception,which could enhance the livelihood resilience of herdsmen and promote the high-quality development of grassland animal husbandry.

关 键 词：生计资本 生计风险 风险感知 草原寒潮雨雪冰冻自然灾害 草原畜牧业高质量发展 

分 类 号：F327.8[经济管理—产业经济] X22[环境科学与工程—环境科学]