面向航空网络的机场风险传播网络  

Airport risk propagation network oriented to aviation network

作　　者：管祥民[1,2] 赵帅喆 GUAN Xiangmin;ZHAO Shuaizhe(CAAC Key Laboratory of General Aviation Operation,Civil Aviation Management Institute of China,Beijing 100102,China;Zhejiang Key Laboratory of General Aviation Operation Technology,General Aviation Research Institute of Zhejiang Jiande,Hangzhou 311600,China;School of Electronic and Information Engineering,Beihang University,Beijing 100191,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民航管理干部学院民航通用航空运行重点实验室,北京100102 [2]浙江建德通用航空研究院浙江省通用航空运行技术研究重点实验室,杭州311600 [3]北京航空航天大学电子信息工程学院,北京100191

出　　处：《北京航空航天大学学报》2023年第6期1342-1351,共10页Journal of Beijing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(U1933130,71731001);浙江省重点研发计划(2022C01055);中国科学院重点部署项目子课题(ZDRW-KT-2020-21-2)。

摘　　要：随着航空网络运输量与日俱增,机场间运行呈现出较强耦合关联。机场风险传播特性严重制约航空网络安全高效运行。目前机场运行风险量化计算及在航空网络的传播机理尚缺乏深入研究。综合考虑安全、效率等风险要素基于聚类算法提出机场运行风险耦合量化方法;构造机场运行风险时间序列,应用因果检验方法并基于复杂网络构建机场运行风险传播网络;通过对比不同类型网络,分析机场运行风险传播网络特征,挖掘机场运行风险传播规律。结果表明:风险传播网络度分布满足双区对数分布特点,呈现小世界特征,不仅具有较短的网络直径和较高的社区性,而且可被分为若干连接密集区域,且风险传播网络效率较低,表明在全局传播的难度较高。Aviation network traffic has increased day by day,and operations between airports are closely coupled.Airport risk diffusion has grown to be a major issue that affects their ability to operate safely and effectively.However,the spread mechanism of airport risk at the network level has not yet been fully understood.This paper first proposes an airport risk coupling quantification method based on clustering algorithm and taking into account multiple risk factors,then constructs risk time series and applies causality testing methods to construct airport risk propagation network in order to better study the mechanism of airport risk propagation at the network level.By comparing the performance of different types of networks,analyzing the characteristics of risk propagation networks,and studying the overall characteristics and laws of risk propagation.The findings demonstrate that the degree distribution of the risk propagation network meets the requirements for dual-zone logarithmic distribution,exhibits small-world properties,has a small network width and high community,and can be separated into a number of densely connected areas.The low network efficiency of the risk propagation network indicates that it is more difficult for the risk to spread globally.

关 键 词：航空网络 风险耦合 格兰杰因果检验 风险传播 复杂网络 

分 类 号：V221.3[航空宇航科学与技术—飞行器设计] TB553[理学—物理]