Development and validation of a nomogram to predict indolent course in patients with ulcerative colitis:a single-center retrospective study  

作　　者：Na Li Shukai Zhan Caiguang Liu Tong Li Tong Tu Baili Chen Yao He Minhu Chen Zhirong Zeng Xiaojun Zhuang 

机构地区：[1]Department of Gastroenterology,The First Affiliated Hospital,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou,Guangdong,P.R.China

出　　处：《Gastroenterology Report》2022年第1期405-412,共8页胃肠病学报道（英文）

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant number 8210031148];the Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation[grant number 2020A1515111087];the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation[grant number 2021M703750].

摘　　要：Background:The natural disease course for patients with ulcerative colitis(UC)is heterogeneous and few data are available on the indolent course of UC and its related factors.We aimed to develop and validate a nomogramto predict indolent course in patients with UC.Methods:Data of patients diagnosed with UC in the First Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University(Guangzhou,China)between April 2007 and February 2021 were retrospectively analysed.Indolent course was defined as a disease course without need for strict interventions(steroids,immunomodulators,biological agents,hospitalization,or surgery therapy)during the follow-up period.The whole cohort was randomly divided into training set and validation set.The nomogram was constructed in the training set based on the results of univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses.The performance of the nomogram was assessed by the concordance index(C-index),area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve(AUC),and calibration plots.In addition,we internally validated the nomogramvia the bootstrap method and the validation set.Results:Of 969 treatment-naive patients with UC,771(79.6%)had an indolent course after diagnosis.Of these,313 patients were included in the development and validation of the nomogram.The nomogram incorporating age,disease activity,C-reactive protein,and platelet count showed good calibration and discrimination.The C-index was 0.759(0.741 in bootstrap validation)and the AUC at 2,4,and 6 years was 0.767,0.782,and 0.775,respectively.The nomogramperformed well when applied to the validation set.Conclusion:A majority of patients with UC had an indolent course after diagnosis.The nomogram developed in this study might be useful in therapeutic decision-making and follow-up management for patients with UC.

关 键 词：ulcerative colitis indolent course PREDICT NOMOGRAM 

分 类 号：R574.62[医药卫生—消化系统]