基于FLUS-InVEST模型的京津冀多情景土地利用变化模拟及其对生态系统服务功能的影响  

Multi-scenario simulation of land use change and its impact on ecosystem services in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region based on the FLUS-InVEST Model

作　　者：任胤铭 刘小平 许晓聪 孙嵩松 赵林峰 梁迅 曾莉 REN Yinming;LIU Xiaoping;XU Xiaocong;SUN Songsong;ZHAO Linfeng;LIANG Xun;ZENG Li(School of Geography and Planning,Sun Yat-Sen University,Guangzhou 510275,China;Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai),Zhuhai 519080,China;Guangzhou Urban Planning&Design Survey Research Institute,Guangzhou 510060,China;School of Geography and Information Engineering,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430078,China)

机构地区：[1]中山大学地理科学与规划学院,广东省城市化与地理环境空间模拟重点实验室,广州510275 [2]南方海洋科学与工程广东省实验室(珠海),珠海519080 [3]广州市城市规划勘测设计研究院,广州510060 [4]中国地质大学(武汉)地理与信息工程学院,武汉430078

出　　处：《生态学报》2023年第11期4473-4487,共15页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42171409)。

摘　　要：研究未来不同情景下土地利用变化对区域生态系统服务的影响,可以为城市可持续发展的规划和决策提供有效支持。以京津冀城市群为研究区域,首先利用未来土地利用模拟(FLUS)模型模拟2045年自然发展情景、耕地保护情景和生态保护情景下的土地利用空间分布格局,并结合InVEST模型模拟研究区不同情景下的生境质量、产水量、碳储量、土壤保持量和水质净化服务,在此基础上运用层次分析法构建综合生态系统服务指数(CES),从空间上反映多种生态系统服务的供给总量,研究不同情景下土地利用变化对生态系统服务功能的影响。研究结果表明:①FLUS模型的模拟精度较高,适用于研究区的土地利用模拟。②在生态保护情景下,除产水量相比2015年下降2.47%外,其他几种生态系统服务均有最大幅度的上升,且这4种生态系统服务在西北山区都出现增加的现象;自然发展情景下,城镇用地和农村居民点的扩张引发了大量的碳储量和生境质量损失;耕地保护情景下,水质净化能力出现最大程度的下降。③自然发展情景下京津冀区域CES的损失最大。CES下降幅度最大的区域主要发生在林地被城镇用地侵占,其次是林地被农村居民点侵占的地区,导致生境质量、碳储量和水质净化能力同时下降;在生态保护情景下,林地的增加促进了多种生态系统服务功能同时提升,京津冀区域的CES大幅提高,表明生态保护情景是最有利于可持续发展的土地利用方案。但同时需注意大量造林可能带来的水资源短缺,要因地制宜保护生态环境。研究结果可以为京津冀城市群可持续发展政策的制定提供参考依据,为研究未来不同政策情景下土地利用变化对生态系统服务的影响提供新思路。Examining the impacts of landuse change on regional ecosystem services(ESs)under different scenarios in the future can provide effective support for the planning and decision-making of sustainable urban development.Taking Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(BTH)Urban Agglomeration as the study area,we first used the future landuse simulation(FLUS)model to simulate the land use pattern in 2045 under three different scenarios,covering nature development scenario(ND),the cultivated land protection scenario(CP),and ecological protection scenario(EP).Subsequently,we evaluated the habitat quality(HQ),water yield(WY),carbon storage(CS),soil retention(SR)and water purification capacity(WP)ESs by combining the FLUS and InVEST models.On this basis,a comprehensive ecosystem service index(CES)was developed by the analytical hierarchical process(AHP)to reflect the total supply of multiple ESs in space and determine the impact of landuse change on ESs under different scenarios.Results show that:①FLUS model has high simulation accuracy and is suitable for landuse simulation in BTH.②Under the EP scenario,except that the amount of WY declined by 2.47%compared to that in 2015,the rest four ESs increased significantly.The increased area was mainly found in the northwest mountainous area;Under the ND scenario,the expansion of urban land and rural settlements caused a large loss of CS and HQ;Under the CP scenario,the WP decreased significantly.③Under the ND scenario,the CES in BTH region suffered the greatest loss.The area with the most serious decline was mainly caused by the conversion of forest land to urban land and rural settlements,followed by the conversion of forest land to rural settlements,leading to HQ,CS and WC declining simultaneously.Under the EP scenario,the increase in forest land area promoted the simultaneous improvement of multiple ESs,and the CES in BTH region increased significantly,indicating that the EP scenario is the most conducive landuse scheme for sustainable development.While at the same time,attention should be

关 键 词：未来土地利用模拟(FLUS)模型 InVEST模型 京津冀城市群 土地利用模拟 生态系统服务 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济] X171.1[环境科学与工程—环境科学]