盐城市1960—2020年降水变化规律研究  

Variation law of precipitation in Yancheng from 1960 to 2020

作　　者：齐天杰 李元 朱长军 郝文龙 胡春明[2] QI Tianjie;LI Yuan;ZHU Changjun;HAO Wenlong;HU Chunming(College of Energy and Environmental Engineering,Hebei University of Engineering,Handan056038,China;Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing100085,China;Yongding River Management Office,Fengtai District,Beijing100165,China;State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing210024,China)

机构地区：[1]河北工程大学能源与环境工程学院,邯郸056038 [2]中国科学院生态环境研究中心,北京100085 [3]北京市丰台区永定河管理所,北京100165 [4]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,南京210024

出　　处：《环境保护科学》2023年第3期115-120,共6页Environmental Protection Science

基　　金：河北省自然科学基金资助项目(E2020402057);水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室“一带一路”水与可持续发展科技基金项目(2020491111)。

摘　　要：盐城市是江苏省产粮第一大市,研究其降水变化特征对于防旱防涝、保障农业生产可持续具有积极意义。根据1960—2020年的逐日降水数据,采用Mann-Kendall检验和Morlet小波分析对盐城市60年降水突变及周期变化规律进行分析,引用降水集中期PCP和集中度PCD讨论年内降水在时间上的分布。结果表明:盐城市近60年多年平均降水量为1023.16 mm,年降水量有小幅增长趋势,线性递增率为每10年0.48 mm,月降雨序列不稳定,夏季降水比重占全年54%;PCD处于0.10~0.77之间,倾向率为每10年-0.023 mm;PCP主要表现在8月中旬,历年变化呈微弱上升,汛期有逐渐提前趋势;极端降水由夏季降水主导,全年和夏季降水均在1991年发生由少变多突变,且降水周期第一主周期为27年,第二主周期为13年。研究结果可为盐城市粮食生产中极端降水防治及水资源管理提供科学指导。Yancheng is the largest grain-producing city in Jiangsu Province.Studying the characteristics of precipitation changes is of positive significance for preventing droughts and floods and ensuring sustainable agricultural production.Using the daily precipitation data from 1960 to 2020,the Mann-Kendall mutation test and Morlet wavelet analysis were used to analyze the sudden change of precipitation in the study area and the regularity of periodic changes.The PCP and PCD of the precipitation concentration period were used to discuss the annual precipitation temporal distribution.The results showed that the average precipitation in Yancheng in the past 60 years was 1023.16 mm.The annual precipitation had a slight growth trend,and the linear increase rate was 0.48mm/10a.The monthly rainfall sequence was unstable,and the proportion of summer precipitation accounted for 54%of the whole year.PCD was between 0.10 and 0.77,and the trend rate was-0.023 mm/10a.PCP was mainly manifested in mid-August,with a slight increase over the years,and the flood season had a gradual advance trend.The extreme precipitation was dominated by the summer precipitation.And both annual and summer precipitation was with a sudden change in 1991 when the annual occurrence changed from less to more.The first main period of the precipitation cycle was 27 a,and the second main period was 13 a.The results could provide a scientific guidance for extreme precipitation prevention and water resource management in a grain production in Yancheng.

关 键 词：降水变化 MANN-KENDALL检验 集中度 集中期 MORLET小波分析 盐城市 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]