新兴技术内涵特征和识别方法研究进展  

Research Progress on Connotation Characteristics and Identification Methods of Emerging Technologies

作　　者：杨思洛[1,2] 江曼 YANG Siluo;JIANG Man(School of Information Management,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China;Research Center for Chinese Science Evaluation(RCCSE),Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学信息管理学院,湖北武汉430072 [2]武汉大学中国科学评价研究中心,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《情报科学》2023年第5期181-190,共10页Information Science

基　　金：ISTIC-CLARIVATE ANALYTICS科学计量学联合实验室开放基金项目“融合视角下新兴技术的前沿识别研究”(IT2160);国家社会科学基金重大项目“基于大数据的科教评价信息云平台构建和智能服务研究”(19ZDA348)。

摘　　要：【目的/意义】对国内外新兴技术概念和识别方法进行梳理,总结对比各方法的特点和研究中存在的不足,为未来新兴技术识别研究提供多维视角和方法参考。【方法/过程】通过新兴技术与前沿技术、颠覆性技术概念辨析,明确新兴技术的内涵与特征;然后从数据源、识别路径、识别指标、有效性验证等四个层面梳理新兴技术识别方法的特点及优劣。【结果/结论】总结得出新兴技术识别的4方面数据源、2大识别路径、5类识别指标、4种有效性验证方法,未来可进一步探讨新兴技术形成机制、多源数据的融合,改进基于术语的新兴技术识别路径、更细粒度的自动化识别方法,加强识别指标与技术特征的关联解释,完善识别结果的有效性验证等。【创新/局限】全面系统对新兴技术识别方法进行归纳梳理,从主题和术语两类识别单元归纳新兴技术识别路径机理及方法模型,有利于为新兴技术识别提供不同维度的研究思路。【Purpose/significance】To sort out the concepts and identification methods of emerging technologies in domestic and foreign literature,and summarize the characteristics and deficiencies of various methods,so as to provide multi-dimensional perspectives and method references for future research on emerging technology identification.【Method/process】Through comparing emerging technologies with cutting-edge technologies and disruptive technologies,the connotation and characteristics of emerging technologies are clarified.Then,it sorts out the emerging technology identification framework from the four levels of data sources,identification paths,identification indexes and effectiveness verification.【Result/conclusion】The four data sources,two identification paths,five types of identification indicators,and four validity verification methods for emerging technology identification are summarized.In the future,it is possible to further explore the formation mechanism of emerging technologies and the integration of multi-source data,and improve the identification path based on terminology using more fine-grained automatic identification methods,as well as strengthen the correlation interpretation between identification indexes and technical characteristics,and verify the validity of the identification results.【Innovation/limitation】Comprehensively and systematically sort out emerging technology identification methods,and summarize the mechanism and method model of emerging technology identification paths from themes and terminology units,which is conducive to providing different dimensions of research ideas for emerging technology identification.

关 键 词：新兴技术 内涵特征 识别方法 新兴主题 新兴术语 

分 类 号：G250.2[文化科学—图书馆学]