多变国际形势下新能源汽车销量分析——基于突发因素的复合预测模型  

Analysis of Sales of New Energy Vehicles in the Changing International Situation--Composite Forecasting Model Based on Unexpected Factors

作　　者：余明洋 沈斌 YU Mingyang;SHEN Bin(School of Mathematics,Southeast University Nanjing,Jiangsu 211189)

机构地区：[1]东南大学数学学院,江苏南京211189

出　　处：《中国商论》2023年第12期164-168,共5页China Journal of Commerce

基　　金：2022年江苏省大学生创新创业训练计划“基于大数据的居民大宗消费分析”(202210286183Y)。

摘　　要：2022年初,国际政治经济局势发生突变,能源产业分布呈现新的格局,以石油为代表的化石能源价格激增,从而引起了后继新能源汽车销量的异常及产能的格局变化。本文基于时间序列分析,在分析了新能源汽车月销量序列的性质后,引入Logistic模型作为修正,建立了一个复合预测模型,尝试分析在外部突发因素影响下新能源汽车销量的变化,并预测其未来走势。本文在考虑到市场本身发展及外部突发因素影响的同时,又兼顾市场发展的延续性,更具合理性和适用性,从理论和实际两方面更好解释了相关长尾突发事件对整体数据变化的影响,在多种预测情形下具有重要意义。At the beginning of 2022,the international political and economic situation underwent a sudden change,and the energy industry distribution showed a new pattern and the price of fossil energy represented by oil surged,thus causing anomalies in the sales of new energy vehicles and changes in the pattern of production capacity in the aftermath.In this paper,based on time series analysis,with the analysis of the nature of the monthly sales series of new energy vehicles,a logistic model is introduced as a modification to establish a composite forecasting model to try to analyze the changes in sales of new energy vehicles under the influence of sudden external factors and to forecast their future trend.The paper considers the development of the market itself and the impact of external contingencies while taking into account the continuity of the market development,which is more reasonable and applicable.It better explains the impact of relevant long-tail contingencies on the overall data change from both theoretical and practical aspects and is important in a variety of forecasting scenarios.

关 键 词：新能源汽车 销量预测 时间序列分析 LOGISTIC模型 突发因素 

分 类 号：F754.1[经济管理—国际贸易]