基于二维云模型的油气管道环焊缝失效风险评价方法  

Failure risk assessment method of girth weld of oil and gas pipeline based on two-dimensional cloud model

作　　者：罗凯 王云辉 朱辽宇 槐维军 刘倩 LUO Kai;WANG Yunhui;ZHU Liaoyu;HUAI Weijun;LIU Qian(No.2 Oil Production Plant of PetrChina Huabei Oilfield Company,Bazhou,Hebei 065700,China;No.1 Oil Production Plant of PetrChina Huabei Oilfield Company,Renqiu,Hebei 062552,China;No.4 Oil Production Plant of PetrChina Huabei Oilfield Company,Langfang,Hebei 065000,China;Engineering technology research institute of PetrChina Huabei Oilfield Company,Renqiu,Hebei 062552,China;No.3 Oil Production Plant of PetrChina Huabei Oilfield Company,Hejian,Hebei 062450,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油华北油田分公司第二采油厂,河北霸州065700 [2]中国石油华北油田分公司第一采油厂,河北任丘062552 [3]中国石油华北油田分公司第四采油厂,河北廊坊065000 [4]中国石油华北油田分公司工程技术研究院,河北任丘062552 [5]中国石油华北油田分公司第三采油厂,河北河间062450

出　　处：《世界石油工业》2023年第3期75-81,共7页World Petroleum Industry

摘　　要：随着高强度钢在油气管道中的应用越来越多,其环焊缝失效问题逐渐突显。提出一种基于组合权重与二维云模型的环焊缝失效风险评价方法,结合环焊缝开裂事故进行危险源识别和理论分析,从焊缝缺陷、管材性能、附加载荷和管理水平等方面进行研究。采用G1法和变异系数法分别确定指标的主、客观权重,从失效可能性和失效后果两方面构建二维云模型,通过指标权重确定单一风险云和综合风险云的云模型数字特征,利用相近度确定所在风险的隶属等级。结果表明,组合权重充分考虑指标的主观性和客观性,二维云模型实现了风险等级的可视化推理和诊断。与其他模型相比,模型兼顾边界等级的模糊性和随机性,评价方法合理可靠。With the increasing application of high strength steel in oil and gas pipeline,the failure of girth weld becomes more and more prominent.Therefore,a failure risk assessment method of girth weld based on combination weight and two-dimensional cloud model was proposed.The risk source identification and theoretical analysis of girth weld cracking accidents were combined,and the weld defects,pipe performance,additional load and management level were studied.G1 method and coefficient of variation method were used to determine the principal and objective weights of indicators,and a two-dimensional cloud model was constructed from two aspects of failure possibility and failure consequence.The numerical characteristics of the cloud model of single risk cloud and comprehensive risk cloud were determined by index weights,and the membership level of the risk was determined by the similarity degree.The results show that the combination weight fully considers the subjectivity and objectivity of indicators,and the two-dimensional cloud model realizes the visual reasoning and diagnosis of risk levels.Compared with other models,the model takes into account the fuzziness and randomness of boundary grades,and the evaluation method is more reasonable and reliable.

关 键 词：二维云模型 管道焊接 环焊缝 失效 风险评价 

分 类 号：TE973.3[石油与天然气工程—石油机械设备]