基于改进三点估计的概率谐波潮流计算  

Calculation of Probabilistic Harmonic Power Flow Based on Improved Three-point Estimation Method

作　　者：徐艳春[1] 阚锐涵 谢莎莎 MI Lu XU Yanchun;KAN Ruihan;XIE Shasha;MI Lu(Hubei Provincial Key Laboratory for Operation and Control of Cascaded Hydropower Station,China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443002,China;Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering,Texas A&M University,College Station,TX 77840,USA)

机构地区：[1]梯级水电站运行与控制湖北省重点实验室(三峡大学),湖北宜昌443002 [2]德克萨斯农工大学电气与计算机工程系,美国德州77840

出　　处：《智慧电力》2023年第6期1-7,共7页Smart Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(52277012)。

摘　　要：由于风力机组和光伏电池等分布式电源具有间歇性和不确定性等特点,提出一种改进三点估计结合最大熵理论(ITPEM&ME)的方法,用于计算配电网中的概率谐波潮流。首先,根据输入变量的不确定性构造改进三点估计的概率模型。其次,结合最大熵理论对其统计特征进行重构,得到配电网的谐波分布情况。最后,在IEEE 33节点系统上进行仿真验证,结果表明改进后三点估计法的误差低于传统的点估计法和蒙特卡洛法,且概率密度函数的拟合效果更接近工程实际,验证了所提方法在处理概率谐波潮流问题时的可行性和精确性。Due to the intermittent and uncertain characteristics of distributed generation(DG)such as wind turbine and photovoltaic cell,the paper proposes a combination method of an improved three-point estimation method and maximum entropy theory(ITPEM&ME)for calculating the probabilistic harmonic power flow in distribution network.Firstly according to the uncertainty of input variables,the probabilistic model is constructed to improve three-point estimate method.Secondly,the statistical characteristics are reconstructed with the maximum entropy theory.Lastly,the case analysis is carried out on an IEEE 33-node system,and the results show that the proposed method has lower error than the traditional point estimation method and Monte Carlo simulation.In addition,the fitting effect of probability density function is much closer to the practical engineering,verifying the feasibility and accuracy of the proposed method in calculating the probabilistic harmonic power flow.

关 键 词：改进三点估计 不确定性 原点矩 最大熵理论 概率谐波潮流 

分 类 号：TM744[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]