认知域信息传播的HSIR模型及其数学仿真应用的传播特点研究  

Cognitive domain information transmission HISR model and its transmission characteristics with mathematical simulation

作　　者：陈志毅 柳雪荣 张晶轩[1] 苗宽 夏凡 王灵芝 冯正直[1] CHEN Zhiyi;LIU Xuerong;ZHANG Jingxuan;MIAO Kuan;XIA Fan;WANG Lingzhi;FENG Zhengzhi(Faculty of Medical Psychology,Army Medical University(Third Military Medical University),Chongqing,400038;School of Psychology,Southwest University,Chongqing,400715,China)

机构地区：[1]陆军军医大学(第三军医大学)医学心理系,重庆400038 [2]西南大学心理学部,重庆400715

出　　处：《陆军军医大学学报》2023年第13期1450-1455,共6页Journal of Army Medical University

基　　金：中央军委科技委员会创新课题(17-163-12-ZT-001-144-01)。

摘　　要：目的构建首个认知域信息传播的动力学理论模型以推动认知域信息攻防的体系建立,并利用仿真数学模型进行概念验证。方法在理论构念上提出认知域信息传播的核心-易感-感染-康复传播动力学模型(Hub-Susceptible-Infected-Recovery,HSIR),基于龙格-库塔法的非线性积分方程进行模型仿真验证。结果标准HSIR模型的仿真结果显示,认知域信息在1万人的群体中传播,将在第46天达到峰值,峰值传播感染7480人,基本再生数为1.3。在模拟分别时滞8、4 d和2 d后对认知域信息传播进行拒止干预,其传播感染峰值感染数不断下降(D8=5822,D4=4892,D2=4126),其传播感染峰值发生时间不断提前(D8=92,D4=62,D2=41)。结论基于HSIR理论模型,本研究提出了认知域信息传播动力学模型,并初步提出了认知域信息攻防体系。Objective To construct a theoretical model for cognitive domain information transmission(COIT)to promote the establishment of an attack and defense system for COIT,and further to validate it by simulating data in mathematical model.Methods A hub-susceptible-infected-recovery(HSIR)model was proposed theoretically to conceptualize COIT,and then the model was validated with Runge-Kutta nonlinear integral equation for mathematical simulation.Results Standard HSIR model showed when cognitive domain information was transmitted in a large population of 10000 people,the peak transmission was observed at Day 46 and 7480 members were covered,with a basic reproduction number of 1.3.Further,when some measures were taken to obstruct COIT at Days 8,4 and 2,respectively,the number of peak infects people was decreased to 5822,4892 and 4126,with a peak transmission duration shortened by 92,62 and 41 d,in order.Conclusion Basing on HSIR model,we bring forward a dynamic model of COPT,and primarily construct a defense system of COPI combat.

关 键 词：认知域信息 传播动力学模型 心灵病毒 谣言传播理论 

分 类 号：B841.2[哲学宗教—基础心理学] B842.5[哲学宗教—心理学] R849[医药卫生—航空、航天与航海医学] E0[医药卫生—临床医学]