2022 年汛期四川多模式降水预报检验  

Verification of Multi-model Precipitation Forecast in Sichuan Province during Flood Season in 2022

作　　者：曹萍萍[1,2] 杨康权 肖递祥[1,2] 王佳津 王彬雁[1,2] 陈永仁 CAO Pingping;Yang Kangquan;XIAO Dixiang;WANG Jiajin;WANG Binyan;CHEN Yongren(Sichuan Priovincial Meteorological Observatory,Chengdu 610072,China;Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province,Chengdu 610072,China;Sichuan Meteorological Disaster Prevention Technology Centre,Chengdu 610072,China)

机构地区：[1]四川省气象台,成都610072 [2]高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室,成都610072 [3]四川省气象灾害防御技术中心,成都610072

出　　处：《高原山地气象研究》2023年第2期28-35,共8页Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research

基　　金：中国科学院战略性先导科技专项 A 类(XDA23090103);四川省科技计划重点研发项目(2022YFS0542);中国气象局创新发展专项 (CXFZ2021J027);高原与盆地暴雨旱涝灾害四川省重点实验室科技发展基金项目(SCQXKJQN202213,SCQXKJYJXMS202214);四 川省气象局智能网格预报创新团队。

摘　　要：采用站点观测和EC、EC订正场(ECR)、CMA_3KM、SWC_3KM模式12~36 h降水预报资料,基于TS评分、SAL检验等指标,对2022年汛期四川多模式降水预报效果进行检验和对比分析。结果表明:(1)SWC_3KM有雨日数预报最接近实况分布,EC模式雨日空报最多且在川西高原和攀西地区尤为显著,EC模式大雨日数预报优于其余模式。(2)BS评分显示EC模式大量级降水预报偏干,其余模式均以湿偏差为主。TS评分暴雨量级各月均以ECR预报最优。(3)个例评分对比,ECR预报效果最稳定,过程最高TS评分次数最多,SWC模式次数最少。(4)ECR个例预报降水强度及雨带位置、走向与实况最接近,EC模式预报偏弱。SWC_3KM模式强降水雨带位置预报在盆地西北部和凉山州北部参考性较高。CMA_3KM和SWC_3KM模式预报大量级降水在高海拔地区存在较大范围空报。By using station observations and 12~36h precipitation forecast of EC,EC revised field(ECR),CMA_3KM and SWC_3KM models,based on TS score,SAL verification and other indicators,the effects of multi-model precipitation forecast in 2022 flood season in Sichuan Province were experimented and compared.The results show that:(1)The forecast of rainy days in SWC_3KM was the closest to the actual distribution,and the EC model had the most obvious wet deviation about the rainy days,especially in the western Sichuan Plateau and Panxi region.The EC model was better than other models in predicting heavy rain days.(2)Bias score showed that EC model predicted less heavy rain days than observation,and the other models were mainly wet.The ECR field got a higher TS score of rainstorm magnitude in each month.(3)Comparison of individual scores showed that ECR had the most stable prediction effect,the number of highest TS score in precipitation process was the most,and the SWC model was the least.(4)The precipitation intensity and the location and trend of rain band of ECR were the closest to the actual situation for the case forecast,while the EC model forecast was weak.The SWC_3KM model had a high reference value for the location of heavy rainfall rain belt in the northwestern part of the Basin and the northern part of Liangshan Prefecture.There was a wide range of heavy rain false alarm rate of CMA_3KM and SWC_3KM in high altitude areas.

关 键 词：多模式 降水检验 TS评分 SAL检验 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]