近60 a广汉降水变化特征及其经济影响初步分析  

Preliminary Analysis of 60-year Precipitation Change Characteristics and Its Economic Impact in Guanghan

作　　者：廖丞蕊 陈永仁 肖天贵[1] 坚参扎西 LIAO Chengrui;CHEN Yongren;XIAO Tiangui;JIANCAN Zhaxi(Chengdu University of Information Technology/CUNT-YN Research Institute of Natural Disaster,Chengdu 610225,China;Guanghan Meteorological Service,Guanghan 618300,China;Meteorological Disaster Defense Technology Centre of Sichuan Province,Chengdu 610072,China;Meteorological Observatory of Tibet Autonomous Region,Lhasa 850000,China)

机构地区：[1]成都信息工程大学/云南自然灾害防御技术研发中心,成都610225 [2]四川省广汉市气象局,广汉618300 [3]四川省气象灾害防御技术中心,成都610072 [4]西藏自治区气象台,拉萨850000

出　　处：《高原山地气象研究》2023年第2期143-150,共8页Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research

基　　金：云南省重点研发计划项目(202203AC100005,202203AC100006);德阳市气象局 2022 年度业务技术研发项目(22-04)。

摘　　要：选取近60 a广汉地区逐日降水资料,结合当地经济数据,应用一元线性回归、累积距平、Mann-Kendall突变检验、Morlet小波分析等方法,分析了该区域年、季降水趋势及多时间尺度下降水时间序列的周期变化。并引入经济模型研究县域经济产出对天气变化的反应。结果表明:近60 a广汉地区年降水量近似呈正态分布且总体表现为减少趋势,气候倾向率为−22.5 mm/10a,四季降水量总体均呈减少趋势。在较大时间尺度下,广汉地区呈现“多雨~少雨~多雨”的交替变化,并且近两年降雨呈集中分布,夏涝和冬旱发生频率增多。另外,年降水量突变不显著,存在3个明显的主周期,分别为6 a、12 a和28 a。在这种降水气候背景下,降水量变化会显著影响广汉地区经济总产出,相关程度排序为:第三产业>第一产业>第二产业。日降水量介于0~20 mm的低强度降水天气的减少会导致当年地区经济出现下滑,而日降水量>50 mm的极端降水天气并不会对当年地区经济造成显著影响。Based on the daily precipitation data in Guanghan area in recent 60 years,combined with the local economic data,the annual and seasonal precipitation trends and the periodic variation of multi-time scale precipitation time series in this area were analyzed by using the methods of univariate linear regression,cumulative distance leveling,Mann-Kendall mutation test,Morlet wavelet analysis.An economic model is introduced to study the response of county economic output to weather changes.The results show that the annual precipitation in the Guanghan region in the past 60 years shows a nearly normal distribution and an overall decreasing trend.The climate change trend rate of the annual precipitation is −22.5 mm/10 a, and the precipitation in all four seasons is decreasing. At a large time scale, Guanghan region shows an alternate trend of "more rain - less rain - more rain". In the past two years, rainfall was concentrated, and the frequency of floods and droughts increased. In addition, the annual precipitation mutation is not significant. There are 3 distinct periods, 6 a, 12 a and 28 a. The change of precipitation will significantly affect the total output of the economy, and the influence degree is as follows : the tertiary industry> the primary industry> the secondary industry. A reduction in low-intensity precipitation between 0~20 mm per day will lead to a decline in regional economic, while extreme precipitation with > 50 mm per day will not have a significant impact on the economic in the region.

关 键 词：降水量 突变分析 经济趋势分析 多时间尺度 广汉地区 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]