考虑时间序列特征的水资源耦合系统有序度评价方法研究  

Study on evaluation of order degree of water resources coupling system considering time series characteristics

作　　者：何中政 迟英凡 王超[3] 闫峰 付吉斯 熊斌[1,2] 钱伟 HE Zhongzheng;CHI Yingfan;WANG Chao;YAN Feng;FU Jisi;XIONG Bin;QIAN Wei(School of Architectural Engineering,Nanchang University,Nanchang 330031,Jiangxi,China;Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Environment and Resources Utilization,Ministry of education,Nanchang University,Nanchang 330031,Jiangxi,China;Department of Water Resources,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]南昌大学工程建设学院,江西南昌330031 [2]南昌大学鄱阳湖环境与资源利用教育部重点实验室,江西南昌330031 [3]中国水利水电科学研究院水资源研究所,北京100038

出　　处：《水利水电技术（中英文）》2023年第5期51-60,共10页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

基　　金：江西省自然科学基金(20212BAB214065,20212BAB214066);江西省水利科学院开放研究基金(2021SKSH01,2021SKSH02);江西省水利厅科技项目(202223YBKT43)。

摘　　要：【目的】近些年来,基于协同学的耦合系统有序度评价方法在水资源评价和管理领域逐渐得到成功应用。系统有序度评价需要综合考虑多个序参量的简单巨系统熵,现阶段简单巨系统熵计算忽略了序参量的时间序列特征,使得评价结果中系统有序度评价结果偏离和系统实际变化情况。【方法】为此,在简单巨系统熵计算中考虑时间因素,提出了一种考虑时间序列特征的协同学有序度评价方法。【结果】以江西省为研究对象,开展了水资源耦合系统有序度综合评价实例检验。【结论】相关实例分析表明:(1)研究提出的考虑时间序列特征的协同学有序度方法评价结果,相比不考虑时间序列特征的评价结果与系统实际演化态势更为贴近;(2)水资源子系统有序度受水资源丰枯变化影响较大;(3)江西省水资源耦合系统熵变值受水资源子系统熵变值影响较大。研究成果提升了协同学有序度评价方法在水资源系统综合评价相关领域应用的普适性,具有一定实际意义。[Objective]In recent years,the order evaluation method of coupled system based on Synergetics has been successfully applied in the field of water resources evaluation and management.The evaluation of system order degree needs to comprehensively consider the simple giant system entropy of multiple order parameters.At this stage,the calculation of simple giant system entropy ignores the time series characteristics of order parameters,which makes the evaluation results of system order degree deviate from the actual changes of the system.[Methods]Therefore,considering the time factor in the entropy calculation of simple giant system,this paper proposes a synergetic order evaluation method considering the characteristics of time series.[Results]Taking Jiangxi Province as the research object,an example of comprehensive evaluation of the order degree of water resources coupling system is carried out.[Conclusion]The relevant experimental results show that:(1)The evaluation results of the synergetic order degree method considering the characteristics of time series presented in this paper are closer to the actual evolution situation of the system than the evaluation results without considering the characteristics of time series;(2)The order degree of water resources subsystem is greatly affected by the changes of water resources;(3)The entropy change of water resources coupling system in Jiangxi Province is greatly affected by the entropy change of water resources subsystem.The research results enhance the universality of the application of synergetic order evaluation method in the related fields of comprehensive evaluation of water resources system,and have a certain practical significance.

关 键 词：水资源耦合系统 协同学 有序度 简单巨系统熵 江西省 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]