1990~2019年中国鼻咽癌疾病负担变化趋势分析及预测  

Trend analysis and forecast of the changing disease burden of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in China from 1990-2019

作　　者：Nada M.A.Hassan 韦彗琳 胡艳玲 Nada M.A.Hassan;WEI Huilin;HU Yanling(Institute of Life Sciences,Guangxi Medical University,Nanning City,Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region,530021,China;School of Information Management,Guangxi Medical University,Nanning City,Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region,530021,China)

机构地区：[1]广西医科大学生命科学研究院,广西南宁530021 [2]广西医科大学信息管理学院,广西南宁530021

出　　处：《蛇志》2023年第2期191-197,共7页Journal of Snake

摘　　要：目的 分析1990~2019年中国鼻咽癌的疾病负担并对未来趋势进行预测。方法 从全球疾病负担数据库(GBD 2019)采集鼻咽癌在中国和全球的发病、死亡、患病、伤残调整寿命年(DALY)、早死损失寿命年(YLL)、伤残损失寿命年(YLD)等数据,分析其在中国不同年龄和性别的疾病负担。采用R 4.1.0构建贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列(BAPC)模型,并对2020~2030年的发病和死亡情况进行预测。结果 2019年中国鼻咽癌的标准化发病、死亡、患病、DALY、YLL、YLD率分别为5.65/10万、1.43/10万、35.38/10万、45.60/10万、42.30/10万、3.29/10万。1990~2019年标准化发病、患病、YLD率逐年增加,标准化死亡、DALY、YLL率逐年下降。20~39岁年龄段的发病、死亡率和疾病负担明显上升,40~69岁普遍达到高峰,男性各项指标的负担在各个年龄段均高于女性。BAPC模型预测2020~2030年男女性标准化发病率呈递增趋势,标准化死亡率呈递减趋势;到2030年总发病、死亡人数分别增加22.80万人及3.39万人。结论 1990~2019年中国鼻咽癌的发病、患病率有所增加、疾病负担有所改善,但未来仍会增加,需进一步加强鼻咽癌的防治工作。Objective To analyze the burden of disease of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in China from 1990-2019 and to forecast future trends.Methods Data on nasopharyngeal carcinoma incidence,mortality,diseased,disability adjusted life years(DALY),years of life lost due to premature mortality(YLL),and years lived with disability(YLD)in China and globally were collected from the Global Burden of Disease Database 2019(GBD 2019),and its disease burden at different ages and genders in China was analyzed.A Bayesian Age Period-Cohort(BAPC)model was constructed using R 4.1.0,and incidence and mortality were projected for 2020-2030.Results The standardized incidence,mortality,prevalence,DALY,YLL,and YLD rates for nasopharyngeal carcinoma in China in 2019 were 5.65/100000,1.43/100000,35.38/100000,45.60/100000,42.30/100000,and 3.29/100000,respectively.The standardized incidence,prevalence,and YLD rates increased year by year from 1990 to 2019,and the standardized mortality,DALY,YLL rates declined each year.Morbidity,mortality and disease burden increased significantly in the 20-39 age group and generally peaked in the 40-69 age group,with the burden of all indicators higher for men than for women at all ages.The BAPC model predicts an increasing trend in standardized morbidity and a decreasing trend in standardized mortality for men and women from 2020-2030.The total morbidity and mortality increase to 22.80 and 33.9 thousand by 2030,respectively.Conclusion The incidence and prevalence of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in China increased from 1990 to 2019,the disease burden has improved but will still increase in the future,and the prevention and treatment of nasopharyngeal carcinoma needs to be further strengthened.

关 键 词：鼻咽癌 发病率 死亡率 伤残调整寿命年 疾病负担 

分 类 号：R739.62[医药卫生—肿瘤]