碳排放权交易中企业分配额的动态效应研究  

Dynamic Effect on Enterprise Quotas in Carbon Emission Trading Mechanism

作　　者：张涛[1] 赵冉 侯宇恒 ZHANG Tao;ZHAO Ran;HOU Yuheng

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院大学经济学院,北京102488 [2]中国社会科学院大学商学院,北京102488 [3]中国社会科学院大学应用经济学院,北京102488

出　　处：《上海商学院学报》2023年第3期105-120,共16页Business Economic Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大项目“宏观大数据建模和预测研究”(71991475);重庆市社会科学规划项目(2019BS057,2020QNGL32)。

摘　　要：市场化的碳减排机制被认为是实现全球低碳目标最有效的途径之一。针对我国碳排放权交易市场建立过程中配额分配的合理性问题与碳减排过程中经济发展-环境保护的矛盾性问题,本文构建包含自然-社会-经济多重系统的DSGE模型,分析比较不同碳配额分配比例下的碳排放权交易活动对中国经济和环境的影响。结果表明,碳排放权交易机制的引入使得棕色企业得到了技术改进,同时绿色企业显著改善了环境质量。其次,初始碳配额分配比例对系统产生显著影响,随着碳配额分配比例的降低,棕色企业技术冲击对中国短期经济的波动效果增强,而绿色企业技术冲击对中国经济的波动效果呈现逐渐减弱的趋势。通过调节碳排放权交易机制中碳配额的初始分配比例,实现经济发展与环境质量的动态优化,为处理好发展和减排的长短期目标关系、提高双碳目标与经济社会发展目标的优化能力、重塑自然-社会-经济多重系统提供了重要的理论参考。To achieve the globalized low-carbon target,market-oriented carbon emission reduction mechanism can be regarded as one of the important ways.The investigation on the carbon emission trading has become a fronter science.Here,dynamic effect of enterprise allocation in carbon emissions trading is investigated to alleviate the rationality problem in the establishment of carbon market and contradiction problem between economic development and environmental protection.Through the allocation proportion of carbon quotas,natural-social-economic multi-system is proposed based on the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium(DSGE)model.By applying the proposed model,the influence of carbon emission trading activities on the economy and environment is analyzed under the different carbon quotas.Through the results,it indicates that the introduction of carbon emission trading mechanism shows improvement on the technology of brown enterprises and environment quality of green enterprises,respectively.Secondly,the initial carbon quota allocation proportion shows significantly influence on the multi-system.With the reduction of the allocation proportion,brown enterprise technology shock shows enhanced effect on the short-term economy.The carbon emission trading mechanism which is based on the baseline method dynamically regulates the development of economy and environment through the proportion of initial allocation on the carbon quotas.Through the proposed method and results,theoretical reference is provided for dealing with the relationship between the long-term and short-term goals in terms of the development and emission reduction,improving the optimization ability of the low-carbon in terms of the economic and social development,reshaping the natural-social-economicmulti-system.

关 键 词：DSGE模型 碳排放权交易 碳配额分配比例 自然-社会-经济多重系统 

分 类 号：X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F832.5[经济管理—金融学]