高校体育安全事件演变机制及安全管理水平评价  

Evolution Mechanism of Sports Security Events in Colleges and Universities and Evaluation of Security Management Level

作　　者：邱家凯 商勇 鲁志勇 徐家林 李影 QIU Jiakai;SHANG Yong;LU Zhiyong;XU Jialin;LI Ying(Department of Physical Education,Anhui Science and Technology University,Chuzhou,Anhui 233100,China;Department of Physical Education,China University of Petroleum(East China),Qingdao,Shandong 266580,China;Security Department,Weifang Engineer Vocational College,Weifang,Shandong 262500,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽科技学院体育教学部,安徽滁州233100 [2]中国石油大学(华东)体育教学部,山东青岛266580 [3]潍坊工程职业学院安全保卫处,山东潍坊262500

出　　处：《西昌学院学报（自然科学版）》2023年第2期86-93,共8页Journal of Xichang University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：山东省本科教改研究面上项目(M2021194);安徽科技学院校级科研项目(2021rwyb09);安徽省重点教研项目(2021jyxm0320);安徽科技学院质量工程重点项目(排球,Xj2021023);安徽省教育教育工委深化新时代教育评价改革试点项目(皖教组秘电[2021]23号-2-50)。

摘　　要：厘清高校体育安全事件的演变机制是预防和控制体育安全事件发生的前提和基础。采用突变级数法和问卷调查法,基于突变理论,构建了高校体育安全事件尖点突变模型,阐述了高校体育安全事件的非线性演变机制;将突变理论和模糊数学理论相结合,建立了高校体育安全管理水平评价的突变级数模型。结果表明:高校体育安全事件具有突发性、多模态、滞后性等突变特征,事件演变的过程包括稳定量变、失稳质变和稳定恢复3个阶段,只有在稳定量变阶段和失稳质变阶段之间建立起避免机制,才能避免系统朝着不安全状态演变;采用突变级数法对高校体育安全管理水平进行评价,评价的准确性更高,可以帮助高校管理者明确当前高校体育安全管理的水平,有效预防和规避高校体育安全事件的发生。Clarifying the evolution mechanism of sports security events in colleges and universities is the premise and ba-sis for preventing and controlling sports security events.Based on the catastrophe theory,the catastrophe progression model of college sports safety events is constructed by using the methods of catastrophe progression and questionnaire sur-vey,and the nonlinear evolution mechanism of college sports safety events is expounded.By combining catastrophe theory with fuzzy mathematics theory,a catastrophe progression model for the evaluation of college sports safety control level is established.The results show that college sports safety events have mutative characteristics such as accidental-ness,multimode and hysteresis.The evolution process of events includes three stages:stable quantitative change,un-stable qualitative change,and stable recovery.Only by establishing an avoidance mechanism between the stable quantita-tive change stage and the unstable qualitative change stage can the system avoid evolving towards an unsafe state.The method of mutation progression is used to evaluate the level of college sports safety management.As a result,the accu-racy of evaluation is higher,which can help college administrators to define the current level of college sports safety man-agement,and effectively prevent the occurrence of college sports security events.

关 键 词：高校体育安全事件 突变理论 安全管理水平 突变级数模型 

分 类 号：G807.4[文化科学—体育训练]