中国北方太阳总辐射模型优化及适用性评价  

Optimization and Applicability Evaluation of the Global Solar Radiation Model in Northern China

作　　者：邓红艳 李艳灵 吴宗俊 崔宁博[2] 赵璐 高颖 DENG Hong-yan;LI Yan-ling;WU Zong-jun;CUI Ning-bo;ZHAO Lu;GAO Ying(Xianyang Water Conservancy Team,Xianyang 712000,Shaanxi Province,China;State Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Development and Protection,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610065,China;Renshou Huarui Agricultural Investment Co.LTD,Renshou 620500,Sichuan Province,China)

机构地区：[1]咸阳市水利工作队,陕西咸阳712000 [2]四川大学水力学与山区河流开发保护国家重点实验室,成都610065 [3]仁寿铧锐农业投资有限责任公司,四川仁寿620500

出　　处：《节水灌溉》2023年第7期67-75,89,共10页Water Saving Irrigation

基　　金：“十四五”国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFD1600803-1);国家自然科学基金项目(52279041,51779161,51009101);四川省科技项目(2022YFN0021,2022YFQ0028,2022YFQ0066,2022YFQ0082)。

摘　　要：太阳总辐射(Rs)模型是估算地表能源最简单的方法,对区域ET_(0)管理、水资源及太阳能利用具有重要意义。选取中国北方47个代表性气象站点(1994-2016年)逐日数据,采用鱼群算法优化温度模型(T1、T2和T3)、日照时数模型(N1、N2和N3)和混合模型(M1),在日和月尺度评价太阳总辐射模拟精度。结果表明:在日尺度上,基于日照时数的模型(N1-N3)精度最高,其次为基于温度的模型(T1-T3),混合模型相对较差(M1),R^(2)分别为0.90~0.93、0.64~0.78和0.80~0.90,MAE分别为1.47~1.95、2.51~4.33和4.88~6.28 MJ/(m^(2)·d);在月尺度上,基于日照时数的模型(N1-N3)精度最高,其次为混合模型(M1)和基于温度的模型(T1-T3),R2分别为0.94~0.97、0.92~0.95和0.86~0.95,MAE分别为25.45~44.29、36.21~102.73和101.25~144.56 MJ/(m^(2)·d)。因此,推荐基于日照时数模型模拟太阳总辐射。The global solar radiation(Rs)model is the simplest method for estimating surface energy,which is of great significance for regional ET0 management,water resources,and solar energy utilization.In this study,daily data from 47 representative meteorological stations in northern China from 1994 to 2016 were selected,and the temperature models(T1,T2,and T3),sunshine duration models(N1,N2,and N3),and a hybrid model(M1)were optimized by using the fish swarm algorithm to evaluate the simulation accuracy of the global solar radiation models at daily and monthly scales.The results showed that:at the daily scale,the sunshine duration models(N1-N3)had the highest accuracy,followed by the temperature models(T1-T3),and the hybrid model was relatively poor(M1),with R^(2) values of 0.90~0.93,0.64~0.78,and 0.80~0.90,respectively,and MAE values of 1.47~1.95 MJ·m^(-2)·d^(-1),2.51~4.33 MJ·m^(-2)·d^(-1),and 4.88~6.28 MJ·m^(-2)·d^(-1),respectively.At the monthly scale,the sunshine duration models(N1-N3)had the highest accuracy,followed by the hybrid model(M1)and the temperature models(T1-T3),with R2 values of 0.94~0.97,0.92~0.95,and 0.86~0.95,respectively,and MAE values of 25.45~44.29 MJ·m^(-2)·d^(-1),36.21~102.73 MJ·m^(-2)·d^(-1),and 101.25~144.56 MJ·m^(-2)·d^(-1),respectively.Therefore,the sunshine duration model can be recommended for simulating global solar radiation.

关 键 词：太阳总辐射 鱼群算法 温度模型 日照时数模型 混合模型 

分 类 号：S214.9[农业科学—农业机械化工程]