自然灾害对中国粮食市场供需的影响  

Impact of Natural Disasters on Supply and Demand of China’s Grain Market

作　　者：石自忠[1] 李俊茹 胡向东[1] 张玉梅[2] SHI Zizhong;LI Junru;HU Xiangdong;ZHANG Yumei(Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081,China;College of Economics and Management,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,北京100081 [2]中国农业大学经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《灾害学》2023年第3期17-24,共8页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：中国农业科学院科技创新工程项目(10-IAED-QT-01-2023);中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项(Y2023ZK04);中国农业科学院科技创新工程项目(10-IAED-01-2023)。

摘　　要：为把握中国粮食市场供需形势,探究自然灾害对粮食产量冲击影响及内在机制,该文借助中国农业产业模型进行模拟分析。结果表明:①稻谷、小麦市场供需呈下滑态势,稻谷净进口增长,小麦净进口下滑;玉米供需总体保持增长,净进口维持在较高水平;粮食自给率总体高位运行,2035年稻谷、小麦、玉米自给率分别达到99.05%、98.65%和92.34%。②自然灾害不利于粮食生产和消费,推动净进口增加;随着自然灾害不断增强,粮食市场所受影响加深,粮食自给率下降;水灾对粮食市场供需影响更大,旱灾影响相对较小;自然灾害成灾率每提高1个百分点,稻谷、小麦和玉米自给率较基准水平下降0.16个百分点、0.38个百分点和0.33个百分点。建议坚持以自给为主、夯实国内粮食供给保障基础,推动多元合作、巩固拓展国际粮食供应链,强化监测预警、持续提升粮食安全风险管控能力,多渠道打好组合拳,强化粮食安全韧性和应对自然灾害等风险挑战能力。In order to systematically grasp the supply and demand of China’s grain market,and explore the impact of natural disaster shocks and its mechanism,this study conducts simulation analysis with China Agricultural Sector Model.The results show that:(1)The supply and demand of rice and wheat markets will be in a downward trend,the net imports of rice will grow,while that of wheat will decline.The supply and demand of corn will generally maintain growth,and the net imports will remain at a high level.Grain self-sufficiency rate will be generally high,with the self-sufficiency rates of rice,wheat and corn reaching 99.05%,98.65%and 92.34%respectively in 2035.(2)Natural disasters are detrimental to grain production and consumption,driving an increase in net imports.As the natural disasters continue to intensify,the impact on the grain market continues to deepen,and the grain self-sufficiency rate continues to decline.Floods have a greater impact on grain market,while droughts have a relatively smaller impact.For every 1 percentage point increase in the natural disaster rate,the self-sufficiency rate of rice,wheat and corn decreases by 0.16,0.38 and 0.33 percentage points from the baseline level.In order to strengthen the resilience of grain security and the ability to meet risks and challenges such as natural disasters,it is suggested that we should consolidate the foundation for domestic grain supply security,consolidate and expand the international grain supply chain,strengthen monitoring and early warning,and continuously enhance the capacity of grain security risk management and control.

关 键 词：自然灾害 粮食安全 稻谷 小麦 玉米 中国农业产业模型 

分 类 号：F326[经济管理—产业经济] X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] X915.5