韧性理念下地铁火灾灾害风险二维云模型预警  

Risk Early Warning of Subway Fire Disaster Under the Concept of Resilience Based on 2-Dimensional Cloud Model

作　　者：刘敬严 陈佳[1] 田静 赵莉琴[2] LIU Jingyan;CHEN Jia;TIAN Jing;ZHAO Liqin(Key Laboratory of Building Collapse Mechanism and Disaster Prevention,Institute of Disaster Prevention,China Earthquake Administration,Sanhe 065201,China;Shijiazhuang Tiedao University,Shijiazhuang 050043,China)

机构地区：[1]防灾科技学院中国地震局建筑物破坏机理与防御重点实验室,河北三河065201 [2]石家庄铁道大学,河北石家庄050043

出　　处：《灾害学》2023年第3期43-47,74,共6页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项(ZY20220206);河北省科技厅软科学研究专项(22557618D)。

摘　　要：在灾害韧性理念指导下,分析地铁消防系统韧性,进行地铁火灾灾害风险预警分析。首先分析孕灾环境、承灾体、致灾因子组成的地铁火灾灾害系统,考察地铁火灾灾害事故。结合韧性管理4M1E-4Rs构建了地铁火灾灾害风险预警分析框架。依据地铁防火相关标准,并参考借鉴地铁火灾灾害相关参考文献,建立地铁火灾灾害预警评价指标体系。针对地铁火灾灾害风险评价指标的模糊性和随机性,选用云模型进行预警分析。综合考虑风险矩阵中的风险可能性和风险后果,建立二维云模型进行分析。以风险概率和风险后果作为二维云模型的维度,采用熵权法和CRITIC法确定指标组合权重。最后利用云发生器matlab编程计算概率风险云和后果风险云的云数字特征,生成云滴及风险预警云图,并与标准云图进行对比。将可视化的云图配合接近度综合判定风险预警等级。运用该方法对某地铁车站进行火灾灾害风险预警分析,为地铁火灾灾害风险预警提供科学解决思路和方法。Under the guidance of the concept of disaster resilience,the resilience of the subway fire protection system is analyzed,and the early warning analysis of subway fire risk is carried out.Firstly,the subway fire disaster system composed of the pregnancy environment,disaster-bearing body and disaster causing factors is analyzed,and the subway fire disaster accident is investigated.According to the resilience management 4M1E-4Rs,the subway fire risk early warning analysis framework is constructed.According to the relevant standards of subway fire prevention and referring to the relevant references of subway fire and fire protection,a subway fire early warning evaluation index system is established.Comprehensively considering the risk possibility and risk consequences in the risk matrix,a two-dimensional cloud model is established for analysis.Taking the risk probability and risk consequence as the dimensions of the two-dimensional cloud model,the entropy weight method and the CRITIC(criteria importance through intercriteria correlation)method are used to determine the index combination weight.Finally,the cloud generator MATLAB is used to program and calculate the cloud digital characteristics of probability risk cloud and consequence risk cloud,and generate cloud droplets and risk warning cloud maps,and compare them with standard cloud maps.The visual cloud map is combined with the proximity to comprehensively determine the risk warning level.This method is used to analyze the fire risk early warning of a subway station,which provides ideas and methods for the fire risk early warning of the subway.

关 键 词：地铁火灾 灾害风险 灾害韧性 风险预警 二维云模型 

分 类 号：X913[环境科学与工程—安全科学] X915.5X4