基于多源数据的地震次生火灾风险评估研究  

Post-earthquake Fire Risk Assessment Based on Multi-source Data Model

作　　者：王威[1] 高崯 郭小东[1] 刘朝峰 WANG Wei;GAO Yin;GUO Xiaodong;LIU Chaofeng(Faculty of Architecture,Civil And Transportation Engineering,Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124,China;School of Civil and Transportation Engineering,Hebei University of Technology,Tianjin 300401,China)

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学城市建设学部,北京100124 [2]河北工业大学土木与交通学院,天津300401

出　　处：《灾害学》2023年第3期192-197,共6页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52278472);北京市自然科学基金项目(8232004);河北省自然科学基金项目(E2022202119)。

摘　　要：为准确评估多准则地震次生火灾的风险等级,首先基于常态下城市火灾风险评估,从城市火灾危险性、城市易损性、地震破坏性和抗灾能力四方面入手构建基于多源数据的地震次生火灾风险评估指标体系;其次,考虑多源数据指标存在的不确定性特征,引入可拓联系云模型构建可拓综合评判矩阵,评定地震次生火灾风险等级;最后,以石家庄主城区为实例进行地震次生火灾风险评估,分析得到其在不同地震情景下相应的风险等级划分,风险评估结果主要集中在A-D四个等级。研究结果表明:该研究方法合理有效,可为城市地震次生火灾风险评估提供科学依据。In order to accurately assess the risk level of multi-criteria post-earthquake fire,we firstly construct a multi-source data-based post-earthquake fire risk assessment index system based on the four aspects of urban fire hazard,urban vulnerability,earthquake damage and disaster resilience under normal urban fire risk assessment.Finally,the main urban area of Shijiazhuang is used as an example to assess the risk of post-earthquake fire,and the corresponding risk classification is obtained under different earthquake scenarios,with the risk assessment results mainly focusing on four levels A-D.The study shows that the research method is reasonable and effective,and can provide a scientific basis for the risk assessment of urban post-earthquake fire.

关 键 词：地震次生火灾 风险评估 多源数据 可拓联系云 

分 类 号：X915.5[环境科学与工程—安全科学] X43[天文地球—地震学] P315[天文地球—固体地球物理学] X932[天文地球—地球物理学]