1992—2021年抚仙湖海口水生态环境指标COD_(Mn)变化趋势及影响因素研究  

Trend and Influence Factors of COD_(Mn) at Haikou Section of Fuxian Lake from 1992 to 2021

作　　者：贺克雕[1] HE Kediao(Yunnan Hydrology and Water Resources Bureau,Kunming 650106,China)

机构地区：[1]云南省水文水资源局,云南昆明650106

出　　处：《林业调查规划》2023年第3期19-24,共6页Forest Inventory and Planning

摘　　要：为探明水生态环境指标——高锰酸盐指数突变特征、变化趋势及其影响因素,采用Mann-Kendall检验法对高锰酸盐指数变化趋势、突变特征进行研究,运用SPSS软件分析主要水文要素和经济社会指标与高锰酸盐指数的关系。结果表明,1992—2021年,抚仙湖海口断面高锰酸盐指数总体呈显著上升趋势,年均上升0.027 mg/L,近年浓度接近2.0 mg/L。高锰酸盐指数在研究时段内发生3次突变,1994年、1996年突变不显著,2021年突变极其显著。抚仙湖水位经历了上升、平稳、下降、上升、下降的变化过程,多年平均蒸发量约为多年平均降水量的1.4倍,蒸降比高时水位呈下降趋势。流域人口密度、蒸发量、水位可解释抚仙湖海口断面高锰酸盐指数变化的65.0%,人口密度、蒸发量与海口断面高锰酸盐指数呈正相关,水位与海口断面高锰酸盐指数呈负相关。流域人口密度、蒸发量、水位是海口断面高锰酸盐指数的主要影响因子,人口密度的影响程度最大。In order to study the mutation characteristics,trend and influence factors of COD_(Mn),the Mann-Kendall test was used to study the trend and mutation characteristics of COD_(Mn),and the relationship between main hydrological factors,economic and social indicators and COD_(Mn)was analyzed by SPSS software.The results showed that COD_(Mn) at Haikou section of Fuxian Lake showed a significant increasing trend,with an average annual increase of 0.027 mg/L from 1992 to 2021,and the concentration was close to 2.0 mg/L in recent years.COD_(Mn) mutated three times during the study period,with insignificant mutation in 1994 and 1996,and extremely significant mutation in 2021.The water level of Fuxian Lake experienced a changing process of rising,leveling off,falling,rising and falling.The average annual evaporation was about 1.4 times of average annual precipitation,and the water level showed a decreasing trend when the evaporation-precipitation ratio was high.Population density,evaporation and water level can explain 65.0%of the variation of COD_(Mn) at Haikou section of Fuxian Lake.Population density and evaporation are positively correlated with COD_(Mn),while water level is negatively correlated with COD_(Mn).Population density,evaporation and water level are the main influence factors.The greatest one is population density.

关 键 词：水生态环境指标 高锰酸盐指数(COD_(Mn)) 突变趋势 水文要素 蒸降比 抚仙湖海口 

分 类 号：X171.5[环境科学与工程—环境科学] X524