经济政策不确定性与企业数字化——垫脚石还是绊脚石?  

Economic Policy Uncertainty and Enterprise Digitalization:Stepping Stone or Stumbling Block?

作　　者：王超 余典范 龙睿 WANG Chao;YU Dian-fan;LONG Rui(College of Business,Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,Shanghai,200433,China)

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学商学院,上海200433

出　　处：《经济管理》2023年第6期79-100,共22页Business and Management Journal ( BMJ )

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“我国核心技术自主创新突破口与实现路径的体制机制研究”(20BJY039);上海市哲学社会科学规划课题一般项目“上海先进制造业发展面临的主要问题与对策研究”(2018BJB022)。

摘　　要：在贸易摩擦、地缘冲突频发背景下,经济政策不确定性的增加凸显了数字技术的应用价值。基于2008—2021年中国上市公司数据,本文考察了经济政策不确定性对企业数字化的影响。研究发现,经济政策不确定性的增加发挥了“垫脚石”的作用,对企业数字化产生了倒逼效应,有助于提高企业风险承担能力。异质性研究表明,经济政策不确定性冲击对非国有企业、规模较小、融资约束强以及数字技术应用难度较低的服务业企业影响更为显著。进一步分析发现,丰裕的数字化人力资本、高管长远的发展眼光、较好的数字基础设施以及良好的转型预期是经济政策不确定环境下企业抓住数字化机遇的关键。因此,企业在面临经济政策不确定性冲击时,应积极通过推进数字化变革增强自身抗风险能力。同时,政府可以通过加强数字基础设施建设、营造良好的数字化转型氛围来稳定预期,降低企业应对经济政策不确定性的成本、助力企业数字化转型。In the context of frequent trade frictions and geopolitical conflicts,the increase of Economic Policy Uncertainty makes it difficult for enterprises to grasp the future policy direction,worsening the external environmental risks faced by enterprises,and bringing great challenges to enterprise digitalization.However,Economic Policy Uncertainty also highlights the value of digital technology,which brings new opportunities to promote enterprise digitization.So,the question becomes whether Economic Policy Uncertainty is a stepping stone or a stumbling block for enterprise digitalization?Does the effect of Economic Policy Uncertainty on enterprise digitization show difference among enterprises with different characteristics?How should enterprises and governments seize the opportunity of Economic Policy Uncertainty to promote digital transformation?To solve the above problems,this paper examines the impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty on enterprise digitalization based on the data of Chinas listed companies from 2008 to 2021.The study finds that the increase of Economic Policy Uncertainty plays a"stepping stone"role for enterprise digitalization,thus improves the risk bearing capacity of enterprises.With the increase of uncertainty,enterprises are more willing to engage in digital transformation.Heterogeneity analysis shows that non-state-owned enterprises are more likely to achieve digital transformation in the period of uncertainty because of greater policy impact.Small enterprises and those with strong financing constraints face more serious information asymmetry and disadvantages in accessing bank loans,thus need to make a desperate effort to improve their competitiveness through digital investment while Economic Policy Uncertainty is rising.The service industry has lower difficulty in technology application and is more directly affected by market demand fluctuations,so it has more impetus to conduct digital transformation in the period of uncertainty.Further analysis shows that abundant digital human capital,exe

关 键 词：经济政策不确定性 风险承担能力 企业数字化 数字基础设施 管理者短视 

分 类 号：F272[经济管理—企业管理]