广西电力行业发展现状和二氧化碳排放预测  

Development Status and Carbon Dioxide Emission Forecast of Gangxi Electric Power Industry

作　　者：鄢世阳 刘慧琳 莫招育 农川 陈志明 王志峰 李昊 陈雪梅 

机构地区：[1]广西壮族自治区环境保护科学研究院,广西南宁530022 [2]广西壮族自治区应对气候变化中心,广西南宁530028

出　　处：《大众科技》2023年第5期23-27,共5页Popular Science & Technology

基　　金：广西青年基金资助项目“广西重点行业大气污染物控制和温室气体减排协同效应的量化分析体系构建与案例研究”。

摘　　要：为了全面、准确了解广西电力行业发展现状,分析节能降碳存在问题,探索广西电力行业低碳发展路径,通过对电力行业全面调研,结合广西“十四五”能源和电力发展规划,利用长期能源替代规划系统模型预测电力行业二氧化碳排放情况,得出了广西电力行业碳达峰平台期。结果表明,广西电力结构相对清洁,2021年清洁能源装机占比为55.1%(全国2020年平均水平44.7%),火力发电量占比为55.7%(全国2020年平均水平68.5%),电力结构在全国处于较优水平。随着广西经济强劲复苏,用电需求量仍将持续增加,预计到2025年和2030年,广西全社会用电量将分别达到2.86×10^(12)和3.69×10^(12) kW·h,年均增速约7.1%和5.3%,发电装机容量分别达到9.4×10^(7)和1.5×10^(8) kW,发电量分别为2.96×10^(12)和4.23×10^(12) kW·h。由于非化石能源发电受资源禀赋、气象条件、储能技术等多种制约因素影响,短期内难以实现大规模替代传统能源发电,预计到2025年和2030年广西煤电发电量占全区发电量比例分别为45%和30%,在未来较长时间内煤电仍然主要为城市发展提供电力保障。因此,按电力发展规划现状情景发展,预计2030年广西碳排放量达9.21×10^(7) t,2029年至2032年进入发电行业碳达峰平台期,峰值为1.07×10^(8) t。In order to comprehensively and accurately understand the development current status of Guangxi's,electric power industry,analyze the problems of energy conservation and carbon reduction,and explore the low-carbon development path of Guangxi's,electric power industry,through comprehensive research on the electric power industry,combined with Guangxi's"14th Five Year Plan"energy and electric power development plan,the long-term energy substitution planning system model is used to predict the carbon dioxide emissions of the power industry,and the carbon peak platform period of Guangxi's electric power industry is obtained.The results show that the electric power structure of Guangxi is relatively clean,with a clean energy installed capacity of 55.1%in 2021(the national average level in 2020 is 44.7%),and a thermal power generation capacity of 55.7%(the national average level in 2020 is 68.5%).The electric power structure is at at relatively optimal level in the country.With the strong economic recovery in Guangxi,the demand for electricity will continue to increase.It is expected that by 2025 and 2030,the total social electricity consumption in Guangxi will reach 2.86 × 10^(12) and 3.69 × 10^(12) kW·h,respectively,with an average annual growth rate of about 7.1%and 5.3%,and the installed power generation capacity will reach 9.4 ×10^(7) kW and 1.5 ×10^(8) kW,respectively,with power generation of 2.96×10^(12) and 4.23 ×10^(12) kW·h,respectively.As non fossil energy power generation is affected by resource endowment,meteorological conditions,energy storage and other constraints,it is difficult to realize large-scale replacement of traditional energy power generation in the short term.It is estimated that by 2025 and 2030,coal power generation in Guangxi will account for 45%and 30%of the total power generation in the region,respectively,and coal power will still provide power security for urban development for a long time in the future.Therefore,according to the current situation of power development planning,i

关 键 词：电力行业 二氧化碳排放 广西 

分 类 号：TM61[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] X21[环境科学与工程—环境科学]