基于控制论的传染病动态防控模型  

A dynamic epidemic prevention and control model based on cybernetics

作　　者：吴剑旗[1] 汪曦露 刘军伟[1] 张江辉 李川[1] 朱庆明[1] 李江源[1] 苏纪娟[1] 刘畅[1] WU Jianqi;WANG Xilu;LIU Junwei;ZHANG Jianghui;LI Chuan;ZHU Qingming;LI Jiangyuan;SU Jijuan;LIU Chang(The 38th Research Institute of China Electronics Technology Group Corporation,Key Laboratory of Aperture Array and Space Application in Anhui Province,Hefei 230088,China)

机构地区：[1]中国电子科技集团公司第三十八研究所,孔径阵列与空间探测安徽省重点实验室,合肥230088

出　　处：《中华疾病控制杂志》2023年第6期621-626,共6页Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention

基　　金：中国工程院战略研究与咨询项目(2022-XZ-43)。

摘　　要：自古以来传染病就是人类生命健康的最大威胁之一,2019年开始在全球肆虐的COVID-19疫情也表明研究传染病传播规律任重道远。将传染病传播看成是一个动态系统,将负反馈机制引入传染病传播模型,揭示了控制措施和科技手段在传染病防控中起到的作用,对积极防控包括COVID-19在内的重大疫情及未来有效防御生物武器具有指导意义。Infectious diseases have been one of the greatest threats to human life since ancient times.The COVID-19 pandemic,which has had a full impact on the world since 2019,also shows that it is a long way to go in studying infectious disease transmission patterns.The spread of the epidemic is regarded as a dynamic system.The negative feedback mechanism is introduced into the infectious disease transmission model.This paper reveals the role of control measures and technological means in epidemic prevention,which can provide guidance to help effectively prevent both major epidemics such as COVID-19 and biological weapons in the future.

关 键 词：传染病 控制论 动态稳定 易感者-暴露者-感染者-康复者模型 

分 类 号：R181.8[医药卫生—流行病学]