滇中城市群城市韧性时空格局演变及动态预测研究  

Spatial-Temporal Pattern Evolution and Dynamic Prediction of Urban Resilience in Dianzhong Urban Agglomeration

作　　者：吴菊平 潘玉君[1] 骆华松[2] 高大帅[1] WU Juping;PAN Yujun;LUO Huasong;GAO Dashuai(Faculty of Geography,Yunnan Normal University,Kunming Yunnan 650500,China;Postgraduate School of Yunnan Normal University,Kunming Yunnan 650500,China)

机构地区：[1]云南师范大学地理学部,云南昆明650500 [2]云南师范大学研究生院,云南昆明650500

出　　处：《生态经济》2023年第8期95-105,共11页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“云南沿边跨境旅游的口岸-通道-腹地效应及其形成机制研究”(41861032);国家自然科学基金项目“中国地理学年表研编”(41971169);国家自然科学基金项目“孟中印缅经济走廊次区域合作与地缘安全协同机制及路径研究”(41671131)。

摘　　要：城市韧性已成为当下学界研究的热点。论文以滇中城市群49个县(市、区)为研究对象,运用熵值法、空间分析法对2005—2019年城市韧性测度及时空格局演变进行分析,并运用BP神经网络模型对2025年和2033年城市韧性进行动态模拟预测。结果发现:(1)滇中城市群城市韧性发展具有明显的不均衡性,高度韧性城市主要分布在核心地区,呈“小片状”分布。较低、低度韧性城市主要分布在外围地区,呈“边沿分散分布”空间格局。(2)滇中城市群城市韧性冷热点分布具有明显的圈层结构,中心城市热,外围冷,“热点恒热”现象显著。(3)从模型预测结果来看,能准确地预测2025年和2033年城市韧性时空格局演变规律。韧性强的城市持续集中在中心城市。社会韧性与经济韧性的高值区在空间分布上有高度的相似性,生态韧性的高值区集中分布在研究区域的西南部和西北部。论文深入研究滇中城市群城市韧性的时空格局演变特征并进行韧性的预测与分析,对于厘清城市韧性发展规律、提升城市未来可持续发展能力具有重要理论意义和现实意义。Urban resilience has become a hot topic in academic research.In this paper,49 counties(cities and districts)in Dianzhong urban agglomeration were selected as the research object.The entropy method and spatial analysis method were used to analyze the urban resilience measurement and spatial-temporal pattern evolution from 2005 to 2019,and the BP neural network model was used to simulate and predict the urban resilience in 2025 and 2033.The results show that:(1)the urban resilience development of Dianzhong urban agglomeration has obvious imbalance,and the high resilience cities are mainly distributed in the core area,which is in a“small flake”distribution.The cities with low and low degree of toughness are mainly distributed in the peripheral areas,presenting a spatial pattern of“edge scattered distribution”.(2)The distribution of urban ductile hot spots in Dianzhong urban agglomeration has an obvious circle structure.The central city is hot,the periphery is cold,and the phenomenon of“hot spot constant heat”is significant.(3)The model can accurately predict the spatial and temporal pattern evolution of urban resilience in 2025 and 2033.Resilient cities continue to be concentrated in central cities.The high values of social resilience and economic resilience are highly similar in spatial distribution,and the high values of ecological resilience are concentrated in the southwest and northwest of the study area.This paper makes an in-depth study on the spatial-temporal pattern evolution characteristics of urban resilience in Dianzhong urban agglomeration,and carries out prediction and analysis of resilience,which has important theoretical and practical significance for clarifying the law of urban resilience development and improving the sustainable development ability of cities in the future.

关 键 词：滇中城市群 城市韧性 时空格局 动态预测 BP神经网络模型 

分 类 号：C912.81[经济管理]