基于MaxEnt模型的巴西烟草全球适生区预测研究  

Prediction Study of the Global Suitable Habitat of Brazilian Tobacco Based on MaxEnt Model

作　　者：曹守涛 李军[1] 孙帅帅[1] 王增瑜 张楠 张艳芳 CAO Shoutao;LI Jun;SUN Shuaishuai;WANG Zengyu;ZHANG Nan;ZHANG Yanfang(Technology Center of China Tobacco Shandong Industrial Co.,Ltd.,Jinan 250100,China;China National Tobacco Cooperation,Beijing 100055,China;College of Plant Protection,Shandong Agricultural University,Tai’an 271018,China)

机构地区：[1]山东中烟工业有限责任公司技术中心,山东济南250100 [2]中国烟叶公司,北京100055 [3]山东农业大学植物保护学院,山东泰安271018

出　　处：《云南农业大学学报（自然科学版）》2023年第3期439-445,共7页Journal of Yunnan Agricultural University:Natural Science

基　　金：山东中烟工业有限责任公司重大专项(202102004)。

摘　　要：【目的】明确巴西烟草在当前以及未来气候条件下全球范围内适生区的分布和变化情况,为合理布局优质烟叶生产、实现烟草可持续发展提供理论依据。【方法】基于巴西烟草地理分布数据以及当前和未来世界生物气候信息,利用最大熵(MaxEnt)模型和ArcGIS软件分别预测了当前和未来气候条件下巴西烟草在全球范围内的适生区。【结果】MaxEnt模型训练集和测试集的AUC值分别为0.979和0.966,预测结果的精度较高;等温性(bio3)、年降水量(bio12)、最暖月最高温度(bio5)和最暖季降水量(bio18)是影响巴西烟草潜在分布区的关键生物气候变量。当前气候条件下巴西烟草的适生区主要分布于非洲中部、南美洲、北美洲南部、亚洲和澳大利亚的部分地区;与当前气候条件相比,未来气候条件下,巴西烟草在SSP1-2.6情景下的适生区面积减少、在SSP5-8.5情景下的适生区面积增加。【结论】在未来气候条件下,巴西烟草的全球适生区有向低纬度地区迁移的趋势。[Purpose]To clarify the distribution and changes of suitable habitats of Brazilian tobacco on a global scale under current and future climatic conditions,providing a theoretical basis for the rational layout of high-quality tobacco production and sustainable tobacco development.[Methods]Based on the geographical distribution data of Brazilian tobacco and the world bioclimatic information of current and future,the suitable habitats of Brazilian tobacco on a global scale under current and future climatic conditions were predicted by MaxEnt ecological niche model and ArcGIS platform.[Results]MaxEnt model had high accuracy with AUC values of 0.979 and 0.966 for training data and test data,respectively.Isothermality(bio3),annual precipitation(bio12),maximum temperature of warmest month(bio5)and precipitation of warmest season(bio18)were main bioclimatic variables affecting the potential distribution area of Brazilian tobacco.The global suitable habitats of Brazilian tobacco were mainly distributed in central Africa,South America,southern North America,Asia and some parts of Australia under current climate conditions.Compared with current climate conditions,the global suitable habitats of Brazilian tobacco decreased in the SSP1-2.6 scenario and increased in the SSP5-8.5 scenario under future climate conditions.[Conclusion]The global suitable habitat of Brazilian tobacco tends to migrate to lower latitudes under future climatic conditions.

关 键 词：巴西烟草 最大熵(MaxEnt)模型 适生区 生物气候变量 

分 类 号：S572.019[农业科学—烟草工业]