2007—2021年南京市六合区恶性肿瘤死亡率及其所致早死概率的趋势分析  

Analysis on the trend of cancer mortality in Luhe district of Nanjing from 2007 to 2021

作　　者：杨爽 周海茸[2] 尤万喜 洪忻[2] YANG Shuang;ZHOU Hairong;YOU Wanxi;HONG Xin(Nanjing Luhe District Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Nanjing 211500,China;Nanjing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Nanjing 210003,China)

机构地区：[1]南京市六合区疾病预防控制中心,江苏南京211500 [2]南京市疾病预防控制中心,江苏南京210003

出　　处：《现代医学》2023年第5期631-636,共6页Modern Medical Journal

基　　金：南京市卫生科技发展专项资金资助项目(YKK21175)。

摘　　要：目的:分析2007—2021年南京市六合区恶性肿瘤死亡率及其所致早死概率的变化趋势。方法:收集2007年1月1日至2021年12月31日南京市六合区户籍居民恶性肿瘤死亡病例,计算恶性肿瘤粗死亡率、标化死亡率及前10位恶性肿瘤死亡顺位等指标;基于简略寿命表法,计算30~69岁居民恶性肿瘤早死概率;采用Joinpoint回归分析恶性肿瘤死亡率及早死概率的变化趋势,计算平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)。结果:2007—2021年南京市六合区居民恶性肿瘤年均粗死亡率为252.59/10万,标化死亡率为153.04/10万,恶性肿瘤总标化死亡率以5.50%的速度下降,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。男性标化死亡率高于女性(205.02/10万vs. 98.96/10万),且男性标化死亡率下降速度快于女性(男性AAPC=-5.06%,女性AAPC=-4.63%)。恶性肿瘤早死概率从13.70%下降到6.88%,年均下降5.37%,变化趋势有统计学意义(P<0.05)。南京市六合区前10位的恶性肿瘤死亡顺位依次为胃癌、肺癌、食管癌、肝癌、结直肠癌、胰腺癌、白血病、脑及中枢神经系统肿瘤(以下简称脑瘤)、胆囊癌和骨癌。男性胃癌、食管癌、肝癌、脑瘤和骨癌的早死概率分别以年均9.96%、7.27%、7.23%、6.96%、10.56%的速度下降,下降趋势均有统计学意义(P<0.05);胰腺癌早死概率以年均2.62%的速度上升,变化趋势有统计学意义(P<0.05)。女性胃癌、食管癌、肺癌、肝癌、胰腺癌和子宫体癌的早死概率分别以年均8.42%、13.86%、2.61%、10.08%、3.86%和9.11%的速度下降,下降趋势均有统计学意义(P<0.05)。结论:南京市六合区消化系统恶性肿瘤、肺癌、胰腺癌防控形势较为严峻,应针对不同恶性肿瘤特点开展综合防治和相关研究工作。Objective:To analyze the trends of cancer mortality and the probability of premature mortality in Luhe district of Nanjing.Methods:The data of residents of cancer mortality in Luhe district from 2007 to 2021 were collected.The deaths,crude mortality rate,age-standardized mortality rate,probability of premature mortality,rank order of top 10 malignant cancers in different genders were calculated.The Joinpoint regression analysis was conducted to analyze the trend of cancer mortality and premature mortality and to calculate the average annual percent changes(AAPC).Results:During 2007-2021,the crude mortality and the age-standardized mortality rates were 252.59/10'and 153.04/105,respectively.The age-standardized mortality rate was decreased by 5.50%(P<0.05).The age-standardized mortality rate of malignant tumors in males was higher than that in females(205.02/10'vs.98.96/10°),and decreased faster than that in females(Male:AAPC=-5.06%;Female:AAPC=-4.63%).The probability of premature mortality of cancer decreased from 13.70%to 6.88%and the AAPC was-5.37%,the difference being statistically significant(P<0.05).The top 10 causes of cancer death were stomach cancer,lung cancer,esophageal cancer,liver cancer,colorectal cancer,pancreas cancer,leukemia,brain tumor,gallbladder carcinoma and bone cancer.The male probability of premature mortality of stomach cancer,esophageal cancer,liver cancer,brain tumor,bone cancer decreased from 2007 to 2021 with an AAPC of 9.96%,7.27%,7.23%,6.96%and 10.56%,respectively,while pancreas cancer increased with an AAPC of 2.62%.The female probability of premature mortality of stomach cancer,esophageal cancer,lung cancer,liver cancer,pancreas cancer and corpus cancer decreased from 2007 to 2021 with an AAPC of 8.42%,13.86%,2.61%,10.08%,3.86%,and 9.11%,respectively.Conclusion:The conditions of digestive system cancer,lung and pancreas cancers are severe in Luhe district.Effective and targeted measures should be taken to prevent and control the different malignant tumors.

关 键 词：恶性肿瘤 死亡率 早死概率 时间趋势 

分 类 号：R730.1[医药卫生—肿瘤]