加速能源转型与产业结构调整的环境健康协同效益评估:以京津冀鲁地区为例  

Assessing the Environmental and Health Co-benefits of Accelerated Energy Transition and Industrial Restructuring:A Case Study of the BTHS Region

作　　者：杨玺 孙奕生 常世彦[1] 李胜悦 郑昊天 王书肖 张希良[1] YANG Xi;SUN Yi-sheng;CHANG Shi-yan;LI Sheng-yue;ZHENG Hao-tian;WANG Shu-xiao;ZHANG Xi-liang(Institute of Energy,Environment and Economy,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;Tsinghua University-China Three Gorges Corporation Joint Research Center for Climate Governance Mechanism and Green Low-carbon Transformation Strategy,Beijing 100084,China;State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control,School of Environment,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Sources and Control of Air Pollution Complex,Beijing 100084,China)

机构地区：[1]清华大学能源环境经济研究所,北京100084 [2]清华-三峡气候变化治理机制与绿色低碳转型战略联合研究中心,北京100084 [3]清华大学环境学院,环境模拟与污染控制国家重点联合实验室,北京100084 [4]国家环境保护大气复合污染来源与控制重点实验室,北京100084

出　　处：《环境科学》2023年第7期3627-3636,共10页Environmental Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(72140004,72140005);国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFA0605302);清华大学-丰田联合研究院跨学科专项。

摘　　要：京津冀鲁地区是我国温室气体减排与大气污染治理的重心,随着末端控制措施减排空间的缩紧,通过能源转型和产业结构优化等源头治理方式实现减污降碳协同增效的需求日益迫切.基于开发的REACH综合评估模型,通过情景模拟分析,评估了京津冀鲁地区进一步加强末端控制的减排潜力,以及加速能源转型与产业结构调整的环境和健康协同效益.结果表明,未来在京津冀鲁地区快速推行最佳可行的末端控制技术,2035年能够带来约3.3μg·m^(-3)的PM_(2.5)浓度削减,但仅依靠此措施不足以实现区域PM_(2.5)浓度控制目标;加速能源转型和产业结构调整是京津冀鲁地区实现空气质量达标的必要条件,2035年,能源经济系统的加快转型对大气PM_(2.5)污染改善的贡献可达6.3μg·m^(-3);相比于当前的政策力度,4省市虽然需要额外付出相当于地区GDP 0.9%~2.5%的社会经济成本以实现PM_(2.5)浓度控制目标,但加速转型带来的环境健康协同效益能够部分或全部覆盖该成本.The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei-Shandong Region(BTHS Region)is a crucial area for China to achieve synergy between pollution reduction and carbon emissions reduction.The demand for coordinated emissions reduction through source control measures such as energy transition and industrial restructuring are becoming increasingly necessary owing to the limited emissions reductions potential of end-of-pipe control measures.An assessment of the emissions reductions potential through strengthening the end-of-pipe control in the BTHS Region,as well as the environmental and health co-benefits from accelerated energy transition and industrial restructuring,was conducted using scenario simulation analysis based on the REACH model.The results showed that the rapid implementation of the best available end-of-pipe control technologies in the BTHS Region would result in 3.3μg·m^(-3) reduction in PM_(2.5) concentration in 2035,but this would not be sufficient to achieve the PM_(2.5) concentration control targets.Accelerating the energy transition and the industrial restructuring are necessary for the BTHS Region to achieve air quality standards,which would reduce the PM_(2.5) concentrations by 6.3μg·m^(-3) in 2035.The environmental and health co-benefits brought by the accelerated transition could partially or entirely offset the additional socio-economic cost(compared to that of the current policy efforts)of approximately 0.9%-2.5% of the total regional GDP in achieving the PM_(2.5) concentration control target paid by the four provinces.

关 键 词：碳排放 常规污染物排放 能源转型 产业结构调整 PM_(2.5) 协同效益 综合评估模型 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]