中国海洋渔业碳排放时空变化特征及系统动态模拟  

Spatiotemporal variation characteristics and system dynamic simulation of China’s marine fishery carbon emissions

作　　者：田鹏 汪浩瀚[1,2] 李加林[2,3,4] 刘永超[2,3,4] 张海涛 钟捷 龚虹波[5] TIAN Peng;WANG Haohan;LI Jialin;LIU Yongchao;ZHANG Haitao;ZHONG Jie;GONG Hongbo(Business School,Ningbo University,Ningbo 315211,China;Donghai Academy,Ningbo University,Ningbo 315211,China;Department of Geography and Spatial Information Techniques,Ningbo University,Ningbo 315211,China;Collaborative Innovation Center for Land and Marine Spatial Utilization and Governance Research,Ningbo University,Ningbo 315211,China;School of Law,Ningbo University,Ningbo 315211,China)

机构地区：[1]宁波大学商学院,宁波315211 [2]宁波大学东海研究院,宁波315211 [3]宁波大学地理与空间信息技术系,宁波315211 [4]宁波大学陆海国土空间利用与治理协同创新中心,宁波315211 [5]宁波大学法学院,宁波315211

出　　处：《资源科学》2023年第5期1074-1090,共17页Resources Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42276234,41976209)。

摘　　要：【目的】准确评估海洋渔业碳排放量并预测其未来发展趋势,有助于促进中国海洋渔业节能减排、加快实现“碳中和”目标和推动海洋渔业可持续发展。【方法】本文基于2006—2020年中国海洋渔业经济数据,以海水养殖、海洋捕捞和海产品加工综合测算海洋渔业碳排放量,以对数平均迪氏指数法(LMDI)揭示海洋渔业碳排放驱动因素,结合系统动力学模型模拟未来不同情景下海洋渔业碳排放变化趋势。【结果】研究表明:(1)2006—2020年中国海洋渔业年碳排放量波动下降65.35万t。碳源量趋于下降且以海洋捕捞占主导,碳汇量快速增长且以贝类养殖为主。碳排放和碳源高值区集中于浙江,碳汇高值区集中于山东和福建。碳源、碳汇和碳排放重心分别向西北、东北和西南方向移动。(2)碳汇、碳排放系数、能源强度和产业结构的驱动效应降低海洋渔业碳排放总量,而产业规模和从业人口效应加剧海洋渔业碳排放量增长。(3)未来不同情景下海洋渔业碳排放量均表现为增长趋势,其中碳排放量呈现快速经济发展情景>现状利用发展情景>能源效率调整情景>碳汇提升发展情景>产业结构调整情景。【结论】研究表明中国未来海洋渔业碳减排工作仍面临巨大挑战。为推动中国海洋渔业节能减排和高质量发展,仍需加快调整与升级海洋渔业产业结构、加大海洋渔业科技投入和积极发展碳汇渔业、休闲渔业。[Objective]Accurately assessing the carbon emissions of marine fisheries and predicting its future development trend will help promote energy conservation and emission reduction in China’s marine fisheries,accelerate the realization of the goal of“carbon neutrality”,and promote the sustainable development of China’s marine fisheries.[Methods]Based on the economic data of China’s marine fisheries from 2006 to 2020,this study used the data of mariculture,marine fishing and seafood processing tocomprehensively calculated the carbon emissions of marine fisheries,revealed the driving factors of carbon emissions of marine fisheries with the Log Mean Divisia Index(LMDI),and combined with the system dynamics model to simulate the trend of change of marine fishery carbon emissions under different scenarios in the future.[Results]The results show that:(1)From 2006 to 2020,China’s marine fishery carbon emissions decreased by 653500 tons.The carbon source was dominated by marine fishing and tended to decline,while the carbon sink was dominated by shellfish and grew rapidly.High-value areas of carbon emissions and carbon sources were concentrated in Zhejiang Province,and highvalue areas of carbon sinks were concentrated in Shandong and Fujian Provinces.The center of gravity of China’s marine fishery carbon sources,carbon sinks,and carbon emissions moved to the northwest,northeast,and southwest,respectively.(2)The driving effects of carbon sinks and carbon emission coefficient,energy intensity,and industrial structure improvement weakened the total carbon emissions of marine fisheries,while the effects of increasing industrial scale and employed population exacerbated the growth of carbon emissions of marine fisheries.(3)The carbon emissions of marine fishery in the future all show a potential increasing trend,with the characteristics of rapid economic development scenario>current utilization level scenario>energy efficiency adjustment scenario>carbon sink enhancement development scenario>industrial structure adj

关 键 词：海洋渔业 碳排放 碳源 碳汇 系统动力学 中国 

分 类 号：X145[环境科学与工程—环境科学] X714[经济管理—产业经济] F326.4