龙门山断裂带发震时刻间隔的SARIMA模型分析预测  

Analysis and prediction of the occurrence time interval of earthquakesalong the Longmenshan fault zone using the SARIMA model

作　　者：叶秋吟 薛源[1,2] 曾文骏 杨静 饶敏[1,2] YE Qiuyin;XUE Yuan;ZENG Wenjun;YANG Jing;RAO Min(College of Mathematics and Physics,Chengdu University of Technology,Chengdu 610059,Sichuan,China;Geomathematics Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province,Chengdu 610059,Sichuan,China)

机构地区：[1]成都理工大学数理学院,四川成都610059 [2]数学地质四川省重点实验室,四川成都610059

出　　处：《地震工程学报》2023年第4期991-1000,共10页China Earthquake Engineering Journal

基　　金：四川省科技计划项目《四川地区主要断裂系统地震活动性统计预测与技术应用研究》。

摘　　要：基于龙门山断裂带2012年1月—2021年9月M_(S)2.5及以上地震目录数据,按震级分组建立发震时刻间隔序列,然后对各序列进行平稳白噪声检验,自相关、偏相关性分析,使用SARIMA模型对其进行短、中、长周期拟合及预测。通过分析模型拟合效果,得到不同震级序列的最优模型参数及相应周期数值。其中,序列M_(S)≥2.5及序列M_(S)≥3.0各模型调整R2均在0.86以上,最高达0.911;两序列对应模型的短时预测表现良好,预测RM_(S)E分别为10.686及8.800。模型预测结果表明,龙门山断裂带后续发震时刻间隔总体趋势平稳,序列M_(S)≥3.0预测结果趋势有微弱增长,一段时间内龙门山断裂带M_(S)≥3.0地震发震次数将略微下降,地震活动性降低。该分析结果可为地震活动研究工作提供科学依据,其分析方法及过程为地震发震时间的分析预测提供了有效可行的途径。Different sequences of earthquake occurrence time intervals were first established in accordance with the magnitude based on the catalog data of M_(S)≥2.5 earthquakes along the Longmenshan fault zone from January 2012 to September 2021.Testing of stationary white noise and the analysis of autocorrelation and partial correlation were then conducted,and short-,medium-,and long-period fitting and prediction were performed for each sequence by using the SARIMA model.Finally,the optimal model parameters and corresponding period values of different magnitude sequences were obtained by analyzing the model fitting effect.Among them,the model-adjusted R 2of M_(S)≥2.5 and M_(S)≥3.0 sequences are more than 0.86,with a maximum value of 0.911;the short-term prediction effects of corresponding models are good and the values of predicted RMSE are 10.686 and 8.800,respectively.The prediction results of the models show that the overall trend of the occurrence time interval of subsequent earthquakes along the Longmenshan fault zone is stable.The trend of the M_(S)≥3.0 sequence shows a slight increase;that is,the number of M_(S)≥3.0 earthquakes along the Longmenshan fault zone will decrease slightly in a given time period,and the seismicity will decrease.Analysis results can provide a scientific basis for the study of seismic activity,and the analysis method and process can introduce an effective and feasible way for the analysis and prediction of earthquake occurrence times.

关 键 词：龙门山断裂带 发震时刻间隔 SARIMA模型 时间序列分析 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学] O21[天文地球—固体地球物理学]