基于合成指数的云南省综合交通运输经济景气研究  

Research on Comprehensive Transportation Economic Prosperity in YunnanProvince Based on Synthetic Index

作　　者：栾庆熊 钱乾 段莉珍 陈治君 闻若伊 LUAN Qing-xiong;QIAN Qian;DUAN Li-zhen;CHEN Zhi-jun;Wen Ruo-yi(Yunnan Transportation Science Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Kunming 650011;Faculty of Management and Economics,Kunming University of Science and Technology,Kunming 650504,China)

机构地区：[1]云南省交通科学研究院有限公司,云南昆明650011 [2]昆明理工大学管理与经济学院,云南昆明650504

出　　处：《物流工程与管理》2023年第7期103-107,共5页Logistics Engineering and Management

基　　金：云南省哲学社会科学规划重大项目“云南综合交通运输经济景气指数研究”(编号:ZDZB201907)。

摘　　要：在广泛收集与综合交通运输经济发展密切相关的月度指标的基础上,按“先行、同步和滞后”的划分方式运用时差相关分析、聚类分析和峰谷图形对应分析相结合的方法将指标进行分类,基于合成指数模型编制综合交通运输经济景气指数,根据指数的波动规律对云南省综合交通运输行业的周期性波动特征进行分析,验证其与宏观经济指标的波动关系,并对景气指数进行短期预测。研究结果显示:2017年至2021年,云南省综合交通运输经济已经历2轮较为明显的周期循环,现正处于第三轮循环周期;综合交通运输经济运行呈现出与宏观经济变化趋势一致且先行于宏观经济变化的特征;2022年云南省综合交通运输经济预计仍将呈现小幅波动上升的发展态势。Based on the extensive collection of monthly indicators closely related to the development of comprehensive transportation economy,according to the division method of“leading,synchronizing and lagging”,the indicators are classified by the combination of time difference correlation analysis,cluster analysis and peak-valley graph correspondence analysis.The comprehensive transportation economic prosperity index is prepared based on the composite index model,according to the fluctuation law of the index,the periodic fluctuation characteristics of the comprehensive transportation industry in Yunnan Province are analyzed,and the fluctuation relationship between it and the macroeconomic indicators is verified,and the short-term forecast of the prosperity index is carried out.The results show that:from 2017 to 2021,the comprehensive transportation economy in Yunnan Province has experienced two relatively obvious cycles,and now is in the third cycle;The operation of the comprehensive transportation economy is consistent with the trend of macroeconomic changes and precedes macroeconomic changes;In 2022,the comprehensive transportation economy in Yunnan Province is expected to show a slight fluctuation and increase in the development trend.

关 键 词：综合交通运输经济 合成指数 景气 GDP指数 ARIMA模型 

分 类 号：F572.88[经济管理—产业经济]