多情景模拟下城市周边耕地功能分区  

Functional zoning of the cultivated land around the city under multi-scenario simulation

作　　者：陈逸航 黄秋昊[1,2,3,5] 郑锦浩 李满春 CHEN Yihang;HUANG Qiuhao;ZHENG Jinhao;LI Manchun(School of Geography and Ocean Science,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210023,China;Key Laboratory for Land Satellite Remote Sensing Applications,Ministry of Natural Resources,Nanjing 210023,China;Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science and Technology,Nanjing 210023,China;Key Laboratory of the Coastal Zone Exploitation and Protection,Ministry of Natural Resources,Nanjing 210023,China;Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application,Nanjing 210023,China)

机构地区：[1]南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,南京210023 [2]自然资源部国土卫星遥感应用重点实验室,南京210023 [3]江苏省地理信息技术重点实验室,南京210023 [4]自然资源部海岸带开发与保护重点实验室,南京210023 [5]江苏省地理信息资源开发与利用协同创新中心,南京210023

出　　处：《农业工程学报》2023年第10期227-236,F0003,共11页Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(41571082)。

摘　　要：科学划定耕地功能分区有助于制定区域差别化的耕地保护措施,是协调耕地保护与经济发展,维护城市粮食安全的重要手段。以常州市主城区为例,综合运用斑块生成土地利用模拟(patch-generating land use simulation model,PLUS)模型、热点分析、k-means空间聚类等方法,系统分析自然发展、耕地保护、可持续发展3种情景下未来耕地变化冷热点区域与现状耕地综合适宜性,在可持续发展情景下耦合两类分析结果,规划耕地功能分区。结果表明:1)在不同情景下,研究区各用地类型整体空间分布格局保持稳定,未来不稳定耕地冷热点分布具有差异性;2)基于生产适宜性、空间集聚性、区位便利性指标综合评价,按聚类结果初步将研究区划分为4类,耕地面积占比分别为38.71%、32.73%、19.80%、8.76%;3)结合两类评价结果,组合不同层次特征,将研究区耕地归并划分为粮食主产区、都市农业区、农地改善区、城乡过渡区,因地制宜地提出相应管控措施。研究结果可以为中国类似城市周边耕地分区分类利用与保护提供参考。Food security is critical to the overall economic and social development in China.Accurate delineation of functional zoning is one of the most important means to balance cultivated land protection and economic development in food security.Fine management of cultivated land resources can be expected to realize in modern agriculture.Taking the main urban area of Changzhou City as an example,this study aims to simulate and then predict the land use under natural development,cultivated land protection,and sustainable development in 2030.Patch-generating land use simulation(PLUS)model was also used,according to the direction of future urban development.The hot spot analysis was then used to identify the cold and hot spot areas in the future cultivated land under the three scenarios from 2020 to 2030.Meanwhile,a comprehensive suitability evaluation system was constructed for the cultivated land from three aspects:production suitability,spatial cluster,and location convenience.A weighted superposition was conducted to evaluate the comprehensive suitability of cultivated land.The scores of individual indexes in each evaluation unit were calculated to combine the comprehensive weights of indexes for the scores of each dimension.The k-means clustering with the contour coefficient in Python was also selected to evaluate the partition,according to the scale of the administrative village.Moreover,the hot spot analysis and spatial clustering were combined to balance the functional zoning of cultivated land under the scenario of sustainable development.The results showed as follows.1)The spatial distribution of land use types overlapped under different scenarios.The hot spots of cultivated land in the future were mainly distributed around the central urban area,where the trend was more in the east and south and less in the west and north.The cold spots were mainly distributed in the north of Xinbei District,the southwest of Zhonglou District,as well as the east and west of Wujin District.The local cluster of cultivated land cha

关 键 词：分区 土地利用 模型 热点分析 K-MEANS聚类 常州市 

分 类 号：F301.21[经济管理—产业经济]