基于DNDC模型的玉米田土壤有机碳变化模拟预测  

Projection of soil organic carbon change of corn field based on DNDC

作　　者：马子钰 马文林 贾小红 王胜涛 张蕾 MA Ziyu;MA Wenlin;JIA Xiaohong;WANG Shengtao;ZHANG Lei(Beijing Climatic Change Response Research and Education Center,School of Environmental and Energy Engineering,Beijing University of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Beijing 102616,China;Beijing Cultivated Land Construction and Protection Center,Beijing 100101,China)

机构地区：[1]北京建筑大学环境与能源工程学院,北京102616 [2]北京耕地建设保护中心,北京100101

出　　处：《华中农业大学学报》2023年第4期192-198,共7页Journal of Huazhong Agricultural University

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFF0211703);现代农业产业技术体系北京市生态循环与低碳发展创新团队(BAIC08-2023-SYZ04);北京建筑大学市属高校基本科研业务费专项(X19009)。

摘　　要：为揭示有机碳变化的关键影响因素并为北京地区实现固碳减排目标提供科学依据,利用北京怀柔区前桥梓村玉米田2016-2019年土壤有机碳(soil organic carbon,SOC)实测数据对反硝化-分解模型(denitrification-decomposition model,DNDC)进行验证,选取气候、土壤及秸秆还田等主要影响因子对验证后的DNDC模型进行敏感性分析,模拟了2种典型浓度路径(RCP8.5、RCP4.5)下该农田未来(至2100年)土壤有机碳变化情况。结果显示:经过校验后的DNDC模型可较好地模拟该玉米田SOC变化;初始有机碳含量及秸秆还田率是SOC变化的主要影响因素;RCP8.5及RCP4.5下SOC含量增加明显,土壤碳库在2100年达到平衡,2100年有机碳含量分别达到27.70、29.03 g/kg,分别较初始有机碳含量上升197.85%和212.15%。结果表明,DNDC模型可用于该研究区玉米田有机碳变化预测,该农田持续采用当前施肥和秸秆还田管理方式可实现土壤持续固碳。By analyzing and predicting the changes in soil organic carbon content of maize fields in Qianqiaozi Village,Huairou District,we reveal the key influencing factors affecting organic carbon changes and provide a scientific basis for achieving carbon sequestration and emission reduction targets in Beijing,China.In this study,the DNDC model was validated using the actual measured organic carbon data from 2016 to 2019 in the maize fields,and then the main influencing factors such as climate,soil and material return were selected to conduct sensitivity analysis on the validated DNDC model,and finally the future(to 2100)organic carbon changes under different typical concentration pathways(RCP8.5,RCP4.5)were simulated.The results showed that:the calibrated DNDC model can simulate the soil organic carbon changes in this maize field well;the initial organic carbon content and straw return rate are the main influencing factors of organic carbon changes;the organic carbon content increases significantly under RCP8.5 and RCP4.5,and the soil carbon pool reaches equilibrium at about 77 years,and the organic carbon content reaches 27.70 g/kg and 29.03 g/kg by 2100,respectively.The DNDC model can be used to study organic carbon changes in maize fields in this study area,and this management approach can be used to sustain carbon sequestration in the future.

关 键 词：DNDC模型 土壤有机碳 敏感性分析 模拟预测 玉米田 农田土壤碳汇 碳中和 

分 类 号：O242.1[理学—计算数学]