缺血性卒中患者卒中复发风险预测模型研究进展及展望  

Progress and Prospects of Clinical Prediction Models for Risk of Stroke Recurrence in Ischemic Stroke

作　　者：谷鸿秋 杨凯璇[1,2] 姜英玉 杜柯瑾 饶蓁蓁 杨昕 王春娟 熊云云 荆京[1,4] 李子孝 GU Hongqiu;YANG Kaixuan;JIANG Yingyu;DU Kejin;RAO Zhenzhen;YANG Xin;WANG Chunjuan;XIONG Yunyun;JING Jing;LI Zixiao(China National Clinical Research Center for Neurological Diseases,Beijing Tiantan Hospital,Capital Medical University,Beijing 100070,China;National Center for Healthcare Quality Management in Neurological Diseases,Beijing Tiantan Hospital,Capital Medical University,Beijing 100070,China;Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics,Xiangya School of Public Health,Central South University,Changsha 410078,China;Department of Neurology,Beijing Tiantan Hospital,Capital Medical University,Beijing 100070,China)

机构地区：[1]首都医科大学附属北京天坛医院,国家神经系统疾病临床医学研究中心,北京100070 [2]首都医科大学附属北京天坛医院,国家神经系统疾病医疗质量控制中心 [3]中南大学湘雅公共卫生学院流行病与卫生统计学系 [4]首都医科大学附属北京天坛医院神经病学中心

出　　处：《中国卒中杂志》2023年第7期731-739,共9页Chinese Journal of Stroke

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(72004146);北京市医院管理中心“青苗”人才计划(QML20210501);北京市医院管理中心“培育”人才计划(PX2021024);湖南省自然科学基金项目(2022JJ40669)。

摘　　要：临床预测模型在大数据与精准医学时代对精准风险分层、个性化诊疗和管理愈发重要。现有的缺血性卒中复发风险预测模型在开发队列人群、预测因子、预测结局、开发方法以及预测性能上存在较大差异。此外,开发方法上的缺陷、报告内容上的不完整以及外部验证和模型影响研究的缺失,使其临床应用效果受限。因此,后续的临床预测模型研究,一方面,应重视现有模型的验证和评价;另一方面,在开发新预测模型时,在预测因子的选取、模型的选用和拟合、展示方式及结果报告上,应遵循相应的方法学规范,以提高预测性能。In the era of big data and precision medicine,clinical prediction models are increasingly important in precise risk stratification,personalized diagnosis,and management.However,existing ischemic stroke recurrence risk prediction models vary significantly in terms of the population used for development,predictive factors,predicted outcomes,development methods,and predictive performance.Additionally,limitations in development methods,reporting,external validation,and model impact research have limited their clinical applicability.Therefore,future research on clinical prediction models should prioritize the validation and evaluation of existing models,while also adhering to methodological standards when developing new prediction models.This includes selecting predictive factors,model fitting,presentation methods,and reporting results,with the aim of enhancing predictive performance.

关 键 词：缺血性卒中 卒中复发 临床预测模型 风险评分 

分 类 号：R743.3[医药卫生—神经病学与精神病学]