面向控制单元的北运河水环境承载力预警研究  

Early warning of water environmental carrying capacity of Beiyunhe River based on environmental control units

作　　者：徐雪飞 曹若馨 曾维华[1] 解钰茜 石建斌[1] XU Xuefei;CAO Ruoxin;ZENG Weihua;XIE Yuxi;SHI Jianbin(School of Environment,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学环境学院,北京100875

出　　处：《环境科学学报》2023年第7期413-426,共14页Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(No.U20A2088)。

摘　　要：北运河流域水环境承载力严重超载,危及流域可持续健康发展.为了响应“水十条”关于建立水环境承载力监测预警的需求,基于径流模拟模型与河流一维水质模型的水资源量和水环境容量核算,构建了基于人工神经网络法的北运河流域水环境承载力预警模型,并面向水污染控制单元,开展北运河流域水环境承载力预警研究.结果表明:多变量的神经网络预警模型相较于单变量模型拟合程度更高;2018年北运河1/2以上控制单元的水环境承载力呈超载状态,其中心城区及下游地区的超载情况较为严重.最后,针对超载严重的地区,基于双向调控提出排警对策,为北运河流域水系统规划提供科学依据.The water environmental carrying capacity of Beiyunhe River Basin has been seriously overloaded,which endangers the sustainable and healthy development of the basin.At the same time,in response to the demand of"Ten Water Rules"to establish monitoring and early warning system of water environmental carrying capacity,we constructed the early warning model of water environmental carrying capacity of the Beiyunhe River Basin with the method of artificial neural network.The early warning model was based on the water resources and water environmental capacity calculated by the runoff simulation model and river one-dimensional water environment quality model.The early warning study of water environmental carrying capacity of Beiyunhe River Basin was carried out on the scale of water pollution control units.The results show that the early warning model based on multivariable neural network has a higher degree of fitting than the single variable model.In 2018,the water environmental carrying capacity of over half of the water pollution control units in Beiyunhe River Basin were overloaded,with serious overloading in the middle urban areas and downstream areas of Beiyunhe River Basin.This paper puts forward suggestions of“bi-directional regulation measures”,i.e.,to increase water environmental carrying capacity and at the same time,to reduce the pressure imposed by the social-economic development on water environment,to discharge alarm for seriously overloaded areas,which could provide a scientific basis for the water system planning in Beiyunhe River Basin.

关 键 词：北运河 控制单元 BP神经网络 水环境承载力 预警 

分 类 号：X32[环境科学与工程—环境工程]