能源消费、产业结构与中国碳排放模式的差异  

Differences in energy consumption,industrial structure and carbon emission patterns in China

作　　者：逯进[1] 郭梦璇 LU Jin;GUO Mengxuan(School of Economics,Qingdao University,Qingdao 266071,China)

机构地区：[1]青岛大学经济学院,山东青岛266071

出　　处：《重庆理工大学学报（社会科学）》2023年第7期29-39,共11页Journal of Chongqing University of Technology（Social Science）

基　　金：山东省高等学校青创科技计划项目“中国人口体系的形成与变动机制及其与经济发展关系的演化”(2019RWE024);青岛市社会科学规划项目“供求双侧视角下青岛市人口老龄化对经济增长的影响机制研究”(QDSKL2101074)。

摘　　要：基于带有伴随变量的有限混合模型,探讨能源消费结构、产业结构高级化对碳排放影响的异质性特征与机制。结果表明:(1)通过内生聚类将中国碳排放模式划分为3种,分别为初始型、人力资本驱动型、技术创新驱动型;不同碳排放模式下,能源消费结构、产业结构优化对于碳排放的抑制效果不同。(2)考察期内,全国29个省份的能源消费结构、产业结构高级化对碳排放的影响模式发生了动态转换;人力资本和技术创新对碳排放模式的异质性以及模式转换具有重要解释力。厘清不同省份间碳排放模式呈现异质性以及同一省份碳排放模式变化的原因,为从根本上降低碳排放提供合理依据,进一步提高区域减排治理效率。Based on a finite mixed model with adjoint variables,this paper discusses the heterogeneity characteristics and mechanism of the impact of energy consumption structure and industrial structure upgrading on carbon emissions.The results show that:(1)China’s carbon emission patterns are divided into three types by endogenous clustering,including initial type,human capital-driven type and technology innovation-driven type.Under different carbon emission modes,the inhibition effects of energy consumption structure and industrial structure optimization on carbon emissions are different.(2)During the investigation period,the impact mode of energy consumption structure and industrial structure upgrading on carbon emissions in 29 provinces across the country has changed dynamically.Human capital and technological innovation have important explanatory power on the heterogeneity of carbon emission patterns and pattern transformation.Clarification of the reasons for the heterogeneity of carbon emission patterns among different provinces and the change of carbon emission patterns in the same province provides a reasonable basis for fundamentally reducing carbon emissions and further improves the efficiency of regional emission reduction governance.

关 键 词：碳排放 能源消费结构 产业结构高级化 技术创新 人力资本 

分 类 号：F124.5[经济管理—世界经济] X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]