2017-2022年北京市西城区流感样病例特征分析  

Characteristics of influenza-like cases in Xicheng district of Beijing,2017-2022

作　　者：魏孝侃 孟欣[1] 初艳慧[1] WEI Xiao-kan;MENG Xin;CHU Yan-hui(Xicheng District Center for Disease Prevention and Control,Beijing 100120,China)

机构地区：[1]北京市西城区疾病预防控制中心,100120

出　　处：《首都公共卫生》2023年第3期180-183,共4页Capital Journal of Public Health

摘　　要：目的分析2017-2022年北京市西城区流感样病例特征,为制定流感防控策略提供依据。方法本研究为回顾性研究,研究对象为2017-2022年北京市西城区38家医疗机构通过北京市医院传染病监测预警系统上报的流感样病例,分析不同季度、不同等级医院流感样病例流行特征,采用时间序列拟合度模型分析流感样病例随时间变化的短期趋势。结果2017-2022年报告的51039581例门/急诊病例中监测到860926例流感样病例,流行高峰在12月至次年1月。2020-2022年组流感样病例百分比低于2017-2019年组,差异有统计学意义(χ^(2)=17986.580,P<0.001);2017-2019年组的各季度流感样病例百分比高于2020-2022年组;2017-2019年组的一级医院、三级医院流感样病例百分比高于2020-2022年组,二级医院流感样病例百分比低于2020-2022年组;通过预测分析2023年流感样病例数以及流感样病例百分比,预测值在2023年1-3月以及10-12月出现季节性高峰。结论2020-2022年新型冠状病毒感染疫情流行期间,流感样病例的流行特征发生显著变化,随着新型冠状病毒感染疫情相关政策的优化与调整,未来依然建议加强流感疫苗的接种,提高疫苗接种率,降低流感样病例的传播风险。Objective To analyze the characteristics of influenza-like cases in Xicheng district of Beijing from 2017 to 2022 and to provide evidence for formulating strategies of influenza prevention and control.Methods This study was a retrospective study.The data of influenza-like cases was analyzed,which was reported by 38 medical institutions in Xicheng district,Beijing from 2017 to 2022,through the Beijing Municipal Hospital Infectious Disease Surveillance and Early Warning System.Epidemic characteristics of influenza-like cases among different quarters and different grades of hospital were analyzed,and the short-term trend of influenza-like cases over time was analyzed by using the time series fitting degree model.Results From 2017 to 2022,a total of 860926 influenza-like cases were detected out of 51039581 reported cases of outpatient/emergency department,with the epidemic peak from December to January of next year.The percentage of influenza-like cases in 2020-2022 group was lower than that in 2017-2019 group(χ^(2)=17986.580,P<0.001);The percentage of seasonal influenza-like cases in the 2017-2019 group was higher than that in the 2020-2022 group;The percentage of influenza-like cases in primary and tertiary hospitals in the 2017-2019 group was higher than that in the 2020-2022 group,and the percentage of influenza-like cases in secondary hospitals was lower than that in the 2020-2022 group.By forecasting the number of influenza-like cases and the percentage of influenza-like cases in 2023,the predicted seasonal peaks will occur in January-March and October-December 2023.Conclusions The epidemic characteristics of influenza-like cases have changed significantly during the pandemic of COVID-19 in 2019-2022.With the optimization and adjustment of policies related to the epidemic of COVID-19,it is still recommended to strengthen the vaccination of influenza vaccine,improve the vaccination rate and reduce the transmission risk of influenza-like cases.

关 键 词：流感样病例 流行病学特征 时间序列模型 新型冠状病毒感染 

分 类 号：R511.7[医药卫生—内科学]