未来气候变化情景下东北地区中晚熟春玉米机械粒收气候适宜区分析  

Climate Suitable Zones for Mechanical Kernel Harvesting of Middle-late Maturing Spring Maize in Northeast China under Future Climate Scenarios

作　　者：苏正娥 刘志娟[1] 杨婉蓉 祝光欣 史登宇 杨晓光[1] SU Zheng-e;LIU Zhi-juan;YANG Wan-rong;ZHU Guang-xin;SHI Deng-yu;YANG Xiao-guang(College of Resources and Environment Sciences,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100193,China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学资源与环境学院,北京100193

出　　处：《中国农业气象》2023年第8期649-663,共15页Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFA0607402)。

摘　　要：玉米生产全过程机械化是玉米生产的发展方向,当前机械粒收是中国转变玉米生产方式的重点。籽粒含水率是影响机械粒收的主要因素,其主要受玉米农艺性状、生育后期生态气象因子以及栽培管理措施等因素影响。东北地区作为中国玉米主产区之一,也是对气候变化最敏感的区域之一,因此,明确未来气候条件下该地区玉米机械粒收的气候适宜性及适宜区,可为未来进一步提高玉米生产的机械化水平,实现玉米生产全过程机械化提供科学依据。本文以RCP4.5和RCP8.5两个温室气体浓度情景,分别代表中等排放情景和高排放情景,结合两种情景下预估的2021-2060年气候数据和春玉米生育期数据,利用籽粒含水率预测模型确定未来40a当前广泛种植的春玉米中晚熟品种机械粒收各等级气候适宜区北界,并基于此得出基于多品种的机械粒收气候适宜区。结果表明:未来40a不同品种的气候最适宜区、适宜区、次适宜区和不适宜区表现为由西南向东北延伸的分布特征,不同品种间各级适宜区北界由西南向吉林省东南部山区的长白、东岗和松江一带以及高纬度的黑龙江北部变动。RCP4.5(RCP8.5)气候情景下,50%和80%春玉米中晚熟品种的最适宜区均位于辽宁省南部(辽宁省西部和南部),最北分别可达42.0°N和41.0°N(42.8°N和41.9°N),最东可达123.4°E和123.3°E(124.5°E和123.3°E),面积分别占研究区域面积的5.9%和1.8%(11.2%和5.9%);适宜区分别位于辽宁省北部和中部(辽宁省北部和吉林省西南部),最北可至43.0°N和42.7°N(44.8°N和42.9°N),最东可至124.7°E和124.4°E(124.7°E和124.5°E),该区域面积占比分别为8.3%和8.9%(4.7%和6.6%)。未来40a,与RCP4.5气候情景相比,RCP8.5气候情景下春玉米中晚熟品种机械粒收气候适宜性更强,但两个气候情景下气候最适宜区和适宜区范围均较小。未来春玉米机械粒收气候适宜区在品种间�Fully mechanized maize production has been trending in China,and using agricultural machinery to harvest maize grains is the focus of the transformation of maize production methods.Grain moisture content is the main factor affecting mechanical kernel harvesting,which is mainly affected by the agronomic characteristics of maize,ecological meteorological factors at the late growth stage,cultivation and management practice and other factors.Northeast China(NEC)is one of the main maize production regions and is the most sensitive regions to climate change in China.Clarifying the climate suitability and suitable zones for mechanical maize kernel harvesting in NEC under future climate conditions can provide scientific basis for improving the mechanization level of maize production and realizing the fully mechanized maize production in the future.In this study,based on the predicted climate data of 2021−2060 under two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5(the radiation forcing levels will reach 4.5W·m−2 and 8.5W·m−2 by 2100,which representing medium and high emission scenario,respectively)and the growth period data of spring maize,the northern boundaries of climate suitable zones for mechanical kernel harvesting of currently widely planted 29 middle-late spring maize varieties were determined using the kernel moisture content prediction models,and further the multi-variety based climate suitable zones were analyzed for the future 40 years.The results showed that climate very suitable,suitable,moderately suitable and marginally suitable zones for mechanical kernel harvesting will extend from southwest to northeast in NEC.And among different varieties,the northern boundaries of climate suitable zones fluctuate from the southwest to the southeastern mountainous areas of Jilin province(Changbai,Donggang and Songjiang areas)and the northern high latitude areas of Heilongjiang province.Under RCP4.5(RCP8.5)climate scenario,the very suitable zones for 50%and 80%of middle-late maturing spring maize

关 键 词：春玉米 籽粒脱水 机械粒收 气候适宜区 气候变化 东北地区 

分 类 号：S233.73[农业科学—农业机械化工程]