2000—2020年长江经济带碳汇时空演变及影响因素分析  

Analysis of Spatial-Temporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of Carbon Sinks in Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2000 to 2020

作　　者：黄汉志 贾俊松[1,2] 刘淑婷 陈地兰 HUANG Hanzhi;JIA Junsong;LIU Shuting;CHEN Dilan(School of Geography and Environment,Jiangxi Normal University,Nanchang 330022,China;Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research,Ministry of Education,Jiangxi Normal University,Nanchang 330022,China)

机构地区：[1]江西师范大学地理与环境学院,江西南昌330022 [2]江西师范大学,鄱阳湖湿地与流域研究教育部重点实验室,江西南昌330022

出　　处：《环境科学研究》2023年第8期1564-1576,共13页Research of Environmental Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(No.72264016);江西省教育厅人文社科基金项目(No.GL19225);江西省教育厅研究生创新基金项目(No.YC2022-s247)。

摘　　要：长江经济带是我国重要的碳汇贡献区,探究其碳汇时空演变规律及驱动机制有利于促进该区域的减碳增汇和低碳发展.该文基于2000—2020年长江经济带土地利用数据、社会经济数据等,利用标准差椭圆、重心迁移模型和地理探测器方法分析长江经济带碳汇的时空演变特征及驱动因素.结果表明:(1)时间上,2000—2020年长江经济带碳汇总量和强度均在波动上升,但中下游地区的碳汇强度在时序上波动较频繁,林地为最大的碳汇用地,年均固碳量在6817.66×10^(4)t左右.(2)空间上,省域尺度下的碳汇强度呈现“南高北低、西高东低”的分布格局.碳汇总量和林地碳汇分布具有较强的空间一致性,集中分布在中上游且呈现先扩张后收缩并向西迁移的特征;水域碳汇主要在中下游,呈现向西跃进的扩张态势;草地及未利用地碳汇集中分布于川西高原且范围有所收缩.(3)重心迁移上,林地碳汇与碳汇总量的迁移轨迹相似,先向东北后往西,分别累积迁移18.81和17.76 km;草地碳汇向北迁移21.76 km,未利用地碳汇向西迁移32.38 km;相比之下,水域碳汇迁移距离最长,累积向西跃进约73.46 km.(4)影响因素上,长江经济带碳汇大小受自然和社会经济两方面因素的综合作用,其中自然因子影响最大,社会经济因素中的国家政策、土地利用强度的影响也较为显著;任何两个驱动因素交互作用后的影响力均大于单一因子.研究显示,长江经济带各地区的碳汇时空演变及影响因素差异显著,为此建议各地区应寻求差异化的低碳路径和优化碳汇用地结构,并通过制定环境政策、土地利用规划等促进地区碳汇潜力提高和低碳发展.The Yangtze River Economic Belt is an important contributor to China′s carbon sink.Exploring the spatiotemporal evolution and driving mechanism of carbon sinks is beneficial for promoting carbon reduction and increasing carbon sinks and regional low-carbon development.This paper analyses the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and driving factors of carbon sinks in the Yangtze River Economic Belt based on land use data,socio-economic data and other data from 2000 to 2020 by using standard deviation ellipses,center of gravity migration models and geodetector.The results show that:(1)Temporally,both the total amount and intensity of carbon sinks in the Yangtze River Economic Belt show a fluctuating and increasing trend from 2000 to 2020,but the intensity of carbon sinks in the middle and lower reaches fluctuates more frequently in time sequence,woodland had the largest carbon sink,and the average annual carbon sequestration is about 6817.66×10^(4)t.(2)Spatially,the intensity of carbon sinks at the provincial scale shows a distribution pattern of‘high in the south and low in the north,high in the west and low in the east’.The distribution of total carbon sinks and woodland carbon sinks has a strong spatial consistency,concentrating in the middle and upper reaches and showing the characteristics of expansion followed by contraction and migration to the west.The carbon sinks of water are mainly in the middle and lower reaches,showing a westward expansion trend.The carbon sinks of grassland and unused land are mainly distributed in the western plateau of Sichuan Province and have contracted.(3)In terms of the migration of the center of gravity,woodland carbon sinks follow a similar trajectory to the total carbon sinks,moving northeast and then west,with cumulative migrations of 18.81 and 17.76 km,respectively;grassland carbon sinks move 21.76 km to the north and unused land carbon sinks move 32.38 km to the west;in contrast,watershed carbon sinks move the longest distance,with a cumulative move of about 73.

关 键 词：碳汇 时空演变 影响因素 地理探测器 长江经济带 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]