江苏省征收更高税率环境保护税的影响:基于动态CGE模型  

Impact of Higher Tax Rate on Environmental Protection in Jiangsu Province:Based on Dynamic CGE Model

作　　者：王佳邓 赵玉婷[2] 孙启宏[2] 杨中雅 WANG Jiadeng;ZHAO Yuting;SUN Qihong;YANG Zhongya(School of Environment and natural Resources,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China;Chinese Research Academy of Environmental Sciences,Beijing 100012,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学环境学院,北京100872 [2]中国环境科学研究院,北京100012

出　　处：《环境科学研究》2023年第8期1634-1642,共9页Research of Environmental Sciences

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目(No.22ZDA106)。

摘　　要：环境保护税是治理环境问题的有效手段,我国现行的环境保护税制度存在税率较低等问题,难以充分发挥其环境治理能力.江苏省在生态环境方面依然有较大进步空间,提高环境保护税税率也有利于改善生态环境质量.构建江苏省2018年环境社会核算矩阵,运用动态CGE模型细化环境保护税征收对经济系统的影响,分析2018—2030年征收2倍、3倍、4倍现行环境保护税税率对江苏省的影响.结果表明:征收更高税率的环境保护税可以增加江苏省的环境保护税收入,减少污染物和二氧化碳的排放,具有减污降碳的协同作用.但更高税率的环境保护税也会对江苏省GDP、企业和居民收入、出口产生负面影响,并且税收负担主要被转移给居民.因此,建议江苏省结合经济发展目标和环境保护需求,合理科学地提高环境保护税税率,并将部分环境保护税收入用于建立减污降碳基金、提高养老金水平和为出口产品提供补贴,在提高生态环境质量的同时减少对宏观经济的负面影响.Environmental protection tax is an effective means to solve environmental problems.The current environmental protection tax system in China has low tax rates and other issues,making it difficult to fully exert its environmental governance capabilities.Jiangsu Province still has room for improvement in the ecological environment,and raising the environmental protection tax rate is also conducive to improving the quality of the ecological environment.In this research,the 2018 environmental and social accounting matrix for Jiangsu Province was constructed,a dynamic CGE model was used to refine the impact of environmental protection tax collection on the economic system,and the impact of the current environmental protection tax rates of 2,3 and 4 times in 2018-2030 on Jiangsu Province was analyzed.The results indicated that levying higher environmental protection taxes could increase environmental protection taxes in Jiangsu Province,reduce pollutants and carbon dioxide emissions,which have a synergistic effect of reducing pollution and carbon dioxide.However,the increase in environmental protection tax rates would also have a negative impact on Jiangsu Province's GDP,corporate and resident income,and exports,and the tax burden is mainly transferred to residents.Therefore,it is recommended that Jiangsu Province increases environmental protection tax rates reasonably and scientifically in combination with economic development goals and environmental protection needs.Jiangsu Province could also use some of the environmental protection tax revenue to establish pollution reduction and carbon reduction funds,improve pension levels and provide subsidies for export products,which would improve the quality of the ecological environment and reduce negative impacts on the macro economy.

关 键 词：环境保护税 动态CGE模型 社会核算矩阵 GDP 碳排放 

分 类 号：X1[环境科学与工程—环境科学]