2010—2019年广州市鼻咽癌发病率与空气污染物灰色关联分析  

Gray relational analysis of nasopharyngeal carcinoma incidence with air pollutants,Guangzhou,2010-2019

作　　者：孙泽雨 梁伯衡[2] 周晶晶 刘艳虹 梁慧婷 王穗湘[2] 许欢[2] 王雅雯 张佳琪 胡晓琴 SUN Ze-yu;LIANG Bo-heng;ZHOU Jing-jing;LIU Yan-hong;LIANG Hui-ting;WANG Sui-xiang;XU Huan;WANG Ya-wen;ZHANG Jia-qi;HU Xiao-qin(School of Public Health,Shanxi Medical University,Taiyuan,Shanxi 030001,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]山西医科大学公共卫生学院流行病学教研室,山西太原030001 [2]广州市疾病预防控制中心慢性非传染性疾病预防控制科

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2023年第14期2526-2531,共6页Modern Preventive Medicine

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(81803326);广州市重点研发项目(202206080008);广州市医学学科重点项目(2021-2023-12);山西省应用基础研究项目(201801D221265);山西省高等学校教学改革创新项目(J20220372);山西省研究生教育改革研究课题(2020YJJG134);山西省华晋骨科公益基金会(20211120,20221116);中华医学会医学教育分会和中国高等教育学会医学教育专业委员会医学教育研究课题(2020A-N02036)。

摘　　要：目的探讨空气污染物与广州市鼻咽癌发病风险之间的关系。方法收集广州市2010—2019年鼻咽癌发病数据与1999—2019年空气污染物(NO_(2)、SO_(2)和PM_(10))数据,采用Joinpoint回归分析鼻咽癌发病率变化趋势。使用灰色关联分析计算灰色相对关联度、灰色绝对关联度和灰色综合关联度,并分析空气污染物诱发鼻咽癌的潜伏期。结果广州市鼻咽癌中标率平均每年下降2.83%(AAPC=-2.83%,P<0.05),其中男性平均每年下降1.64%(AAPC=-1.64%,P=0.07),女性平均每年下降3.84%(AAPC=-3.84%,P<0.01)。广州市鼻咽癌中标率与NO_(2)、SO_(2)和PM_(10)的综合关联度分别为0.78、0.71和0.75,关联度排序为NO_(2)、PM_(10)、SO_(2)。广州市鼻咽癌中标率与NO_(2)、SO_(2)和PM_(10)的滞后期最大关联系数分别为γ_(2007—2016)、γ_(2002—2011)和γ_(2005—2014),分别滞后3年、8年和5年。结论广州市2010—2019年鼻咽癌发病率的降低与空气污染物浓度变化相关且有明显的滞后性。Objective To investigate the relationship between air pollutants and the incidence of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in Guangzhou.Methods The incident cases of nasopharyngeal carcinoma from 2010 to 2019 and the concentration of air pollutants were collected.Joinpoint regression was used to analyze the trends of the incidence of nasopharyngeal carcinoma.Grey relational analysis was used to calculate the relative gray relational degree,absolute gray relational degree,and synthetic grey relational degree,and the latent period of nasopharyngeal carcinoma induced by air pollutants was quantitatively analyzed.Results The average annual decrease in Chinese age-standardized incidence in Guangzhou was 2.83%(AAPC=-2.83%,P<0.05),the average annual decrease for males was 1.64%(AAPC=-1.64%,P=0.07),and the average annual decrease for females was 3.84%(AAPC=-3.84%,P<0.01).The comprehensive correlation degree between the incidence rate of nasopharyngeal carcinoma and NO_(2),SO_(2) and PM_(10) in Guangzhou were 0.78,0.71 and 0.75,respectively.The order of correlation degree was NO_(2)=PM_(10)-SO_(2).The maximum lag correlation coefficient between incidence rate of nasopharyngeal carcinoma and NO_(2),SO_(2) and PM_(10) in Guangzhou wereγ_(2007-2016),γ_(2002-2011) andγ_(2005-2014),indicating that there were a lag of 3 years,8 years,and 5 years,respectively.Conclusion The reduction in the incidence of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in Guangzhou from 2010 to 2019 was related to the change in air pollutants concentration and had a significant lag.

关 键 词：鼻咽癌 发病率 空气污染物 灰色关联分析 

分 类 号：R739.63[医药卫生—肿瘤]